基于气象条件的昭苏地区彩虹概率预报模型研究

IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2023-06-29 DOI:10.1002/met.2131
Jing Liu, Jin Yu, Shen Lin, Guodong Zhang, Shuo Zhang, Min Li, Xiaoyue Lin
{"title":"基于气象条件的昭苏地区彩虹概率预报模型研究","authors":"Jing Liu,&nbsp;Jin Yu,&nbsp;Shen Lin,&nbsp;Guodong Zhang,&nbsp;Shuo Zhang,&nbsp;Min Li,&nbsp;Xiaoyue Lin","doi":"10.1002/met.2131","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>An analysis of artificial rainbow observations in ZhaoSu region from 2017 to 2019 shows that rainbows mainly occur between 16:00 and 22:00 (LST) from April to September. The analysis based on the meteorological observation in the same period shows that precipitation, temperature, wind force and cloud variety contribute to rainbow formation. Approximately 90% of rainbows appear one hour after rainfall, and 100% of rainbows occur when the Beaufort wind scale is less than level 8 following Beaufort wind scale (less than 20.9 m/s), the temperature is greater than 8°C, and the cloud amount is greater than 40%, respectively. A rainbow probabilistic forecast model is constructed based on five meteorological factors. The forecast ability of the model is independently assessed by comparing rainbow forecasts and its observation in 2020. The Brier score is 0.20, indicating that the objective model is effective for rainbow forecasts.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2131","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Research on rainbow probabilistic forecast model based on meteorological conditions in ZhaoSu region\",\"authors\":\"Jing Liu,&nbsp;Jin Yu,&nbsp;Shen Lin,&nbsp;Guodong Zhang,&nbsp;Shuo Zhang,&nbsp;Min Li,&nbsp;Xiaoyue Lin\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/met.2131\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>An analysis of artificial rainbow observations in ZhaoSu region from 2017 to 2019 shows that rainbows mainly occur between 16:00 and 22:00 (LST) from April to September. The analysis based on the meteorological observation in the same period shows that precipitation, temperature, wind force and cloud variety contribute to rainbow formation. Approximately 90% of rainbows appear one hour after rainfall, and 100% of rainbows occur when the Beaufort wind scale is less than level 8 following Beaufort wind scale (less than 20.9 m/s), the temperature is greater than 8°C, and the cloud amount is greater than 40%, respectively. A rainbow probabilistic forecast model is constructed based on five meteorological factors. The forecast ability of the model is independently assessed by comparing rainbow forecasts and its observation in 2020. The Brier score is 0.20, indicating that the objective model is effective for rainbow forecasts.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49825,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Meteorological Applications\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-06-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.2131\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Meteorological Applications\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.2131\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Meteorological Applications","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.2131","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

对2017年至2019年昭苏地区人工彩虹观测结果的分析表明,彩虹主要发生在4月至9月的16:00至22:00(LST)之间。根据同一时期的气象观测分析表明,降水、温度、风力和云的变化对彩虹的形成有贡献。大约90%的彩虹在降雨后一小时出现,100%的彩虹出现在博福特风力等级低于8级时(低于20.9级 m/s),温度大于8°C,云量分别大于40%。基于五个气象因子建立了彩虹概率预报模型。该模型的预测能力是通过比较2020年彩虹预报及其观测结果来独立评估的。Brier评分为0.20,表明该客观模型对彩虹预报有效。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

摘要图片

查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Research on rainbow probabilistic forecast model based on meteorological conditions in ZhaoSu region

An analysis of artificial rainbow observations in ZhaoSu region from 2017 to 2019 shows that rainbows mainly occur between 16:00 and 22:00 (LST) from April to September. The analysis based on the meteorological observation in the same period shows that precipitation, temperature, wind force and cloud variety contribute to rainbow formation. Approximately 90% of rainbows appear one hour after rainfall, and 100% of rainbows occur when the Beaufort wind scale is less than level 8 following Beaufort wind scale (less than 20.9 m/s), the temperature is greater than 8°C, and the cloud amount is greater than 40%, respectively. A rainbow probabilistic forecast model is constructed based on five meteorological factors. The forecast ability of the model is independently assessed by comparing rainbow forecasts and its observation in 2020. The Brier score is 0.20, indicating that the objective model is effective for rainbow forecasts.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Meteorological Applications
Meteorological Applications 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
3.70%
发文量
62
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The aim of Meteorological Applications is to serve the needs of applied meteorologists, forecasters and users of meteorological services by publishing papers on all aspects of meteorological science, including: applications of meteorological, climatological, analytical and forecasting data, and their socio-economic benefits; forecasting, warning and service delivery techniques and methods; weather hazards, their analysis and prediction; performance, verification and value of numerical models and forecasting services; practical applications of ocean and climate models; education and training.
期刊最新文献
Issue Information Evaluation of forecasted wind speed at turbine hub height and wind ramps by five NWP models with observations from 262 wind farms over China Tall tower observations of a northward surging gust front in central Amazon and its role in the mesoscale transport of carbon dioxide Fidelity of global tropical cyclone activity in a new reanalysis dataset (CRA40) Predicting dryland winter wheat yield in cold regions of Iran
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1