China and its Region: An Assessment of Hegemonic Prospects

Will China’s rise lead to Chinese hegemony? Most International Relations scholars would answer in the negative, contending the road to a global hegemony remains well beyond Beijing’s capabilities. In Asia, however, China’s formidable economy, technological advancement, rapidly modernizing military forces, and geopolitical moves look outright hegemonic – a fact that United States attempts to “pivot” and “rebalance” to that region have put into sharp relief. To assess the prospects of a new regional hegemony, this paper considers the “economic,” “security” and “cultural” relations of eleven Asian states with both Beijing and Washington. The overall results induce skepticism about China’s ability to reorder its region. Although significant and growing, China’s network of “strategic partners” is minor compared to that centered on the United States. Sightings of an Asian Pax Sinica are at best premature.