Fay-Herriot Model-Based Prediction Alternatives for Estimating Households with Emigrated Members

Abstract This article proposes a new methodology for estimating the proportions of households that had experience of international migration at the municipal level in Colombia. The Colombian National Statistical Office usually produces estimations of internal migration based on the results of population censuses, but there is a lack of disaggregated information about the main small areas of origin of the population that emigrates from Colombia. The proposed methodology uses frequentist and Bayesian approaches based on a Fay-Herriot model and is illustrated by one example with a dependent variable from the Demographic and Health Survey 2015 and covariables available from the population census 2005. The proposed alternative produces proportion estimates that are consistent with sample sizes and the main internal immigration trends in Colombia. Additionally, the estimated coefficients of variation are lower than 20% for municipalities for both frequentist and Bayesian approaches and large demographically-relevant capital cities and therefore estimates may be considered to be reliable. Finally, we illustrate how the proposed alternative leads to important reductions of the estimated coefficients of variations for the areas with very small sample sizes.