实际汇率失调:以印尼盾为例

Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI:10.21098/bemp.v24i3.1268

Rasbin Rasbin, M. Ikhsan, B. Y. Gitaharie, Yoga Affandi

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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文运用综合控制方法(SCM)对印尼盾均衡价格进行了分析，并对其失调进行了评估。我们发现了卢比汇率失调的证据，因为除了1993-1996年之外，卢比在大多数时期都被低估了。这一发现在模型规范、预测器和权重方面都是稳健的。我们的发现表明，将汇率保持在均衡水平是理想的，政策制定者可以利用低估的货币通过出口促进经济增长。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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REAL EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENTS: THE CASE OF THE INDONESIAN RUPIAH

This paper analyses the equilibrium price of the Indonesian Rupiah using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) and assesses its misalignments. We find evidence of Rupiah misalignment, as the currency was undervalued for most periods, except for 1993-1996. This finding is robust across model specifications, predictors, and weighting. Our finding implies that keeping the exchange rate at its equilibrium level is ideal, and that policymakers can take advantage of the undervalued currency to promote economic growth via exports.

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