{"title":"包裹及快递服务的需求模型及未来发展预测","authors":"Cacic Natasa, Jovanović Bojan, Sarac Dragana, Trubint Nikola, Dudak Ljubica, Blagojevic Mladenka","doi":"10.24818/18423264/57.2.23.16","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":". The growth of e-commerce has significantly contributed to the increase in demand for express and parcel services. The aim of this paper is to create a price elasticity methodology and forecasting demand for express and parcel services. In that sense, to describe the dynamics of demand for parcel and express services, the Lotka-Volterra method and the Holt-Winters method were used. Then, users’ preferences in the express and parcel services were investigated through a survey. Based on the results obtained, a simulation model for the price elasticity of the demand for these services was developed. The developed model of the price elasticity of demand enabled us to notice the potential to increase the revenue of the Public Postal Operator.","PeriodicalId":51029,"journal":{"name":"Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Demand Modelling and Forecasting the Future Development of Parcel and Express Services\",\"authors\":\"Cacic Natasa, Jovanović Bojan, Sarac Dragana, Trubint Nikola, Dudak Ljubica, Blagojevic Mladenka\",\"doi\":\"10.24818/18423264/57.2.23.16\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\". The growth of e-commerce has significantly contributed to the increase in demand for express and parcel services. The aim of this paper is to create a price elasticity methodology and forecasting demand for express and parcel services. In that sense, to describe the dynamics of demand for parcel and express services, the Lotka-Volterra method and the Holt-Winters method were used. Then, users’ preferences in the express and parcel services were investigated through a survey. Based on the results obtained, a simulation model for the price elasticity of the demand for these services was developed. The developed model of the price elasticity of demand enabled us to notice the potential to increase the revenue of the Public Postal Operator.\",\"PeriodicalId\":51029,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-06-21\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.24818/18423264/57.2.23.16\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.24818/18423264/57.2.23.16","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Demand Modelling and Forecasting the Future Development of Parcel and Express Services
. The growth of e-commerce has significantly contributed to the increase in demand for express and parcel services. The aim of this paper is to create a price elasticity methodology and forecasting demand for express and parcel services. In that sense, to describe the dynamics of demand for parcel and express services, the Lotka-Volterra method and the Holt-Winters method were used. Then, users’ preferences in the express and parcel services were investigated through a survey. Based on the results obtained, a simulation model for the price elasticity of the demand for these services was developed. The developed model of the price elasticity of demand enabled us to notice the potential to increase the revenue of the Public Postal Operator.
期刊介绍：
ECECSR is a refereed journal dedicated to publication of original articles in the fields of economic mathematical modeling, operations research, microeconomics, macroeconomics, mathematical programming, statistical analysis, game theory, artificial intelligence, and other topics from theoretical development to research on applied economic problems.
Published by the Academy of Economic Studies in Bucharest, it is the leading journal in the field of economic modeling from Romania.
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