乌克兰戒严条件下的货币反危机措施

I. Krasnova, Iryna Hhromnytska, A. Nikitin, Serhii Khodakevich, V. Shevaldina
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引用次数: 0

摘要

随着俄罗斯军队入侵乌克兰领土,NBU面临着防止本国货币贬值、避免恐慌和确保银行体系稳定的任务。这主要得益于反危机货币措施。监管机构迅速做出了必要的决定,对这些决定进行了审查,并评估了它们在战争经济范式中的有效性,本研究致力于此。综述了在全面军事入侵条件下,反危机货币管理工具及其应用的先决条件、因素和特点。对主要货币指标进行了比较动态分析,表明其可管理性和相对稳定性。证明乌克兰的主要通货膨胀趋势具有不确定性,是在非货币因素的主观影响下形成的,不受货币政策的影响。这些和其他非市场因素引起了国际储备的减少和外汇市场的不稳定。对此,NBU采取了先发制人的货币限制措施。据确定,为了避免外汇市场的恐慌,国家银行迅速作出了一些重要的决定,如确定汇率,对购买外汇和跨境货币交易实行必要的限制,限制从外汇账户中提取资金,提供在国外兑换现金格里夫纳的可能性。为了避免不受控制的货币贬值和资本外流,央行通过干预来支持外汇市场。分析了旨在维持银行体系流动性的反危机措施,包括存单和政府债券的操作,在戒严令条件下,这些操作并不总能实现确保金融稳定的目标。这些措施和其他措施有助于监管机构保持银行体系的总体稳定和不间断运行。
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MONETARY ANTI-CRISIS MEASURES IN THE CONDITIONS OF MARTIAL LAW IN UKRAINE
With the invasion of russian troops on the territory of Ukraine, the NBU faced the task of preventing the depreciation of the national currency, avoiding panic, and ensuring the stability of the banking system. This was achieved, in particular, due to anti-crisis monetary measures. The regulator was promptly making the necessary decisions, the review of which and the assessment of their effectiveness in the paradigm of the economy of war this study is devoted to. The set of tools of anti-crisis monetary management, prerequisites, factors and features of their application in the conditions of a full-scale military invasion are reviewed. A comparative-dynamic analysis of the main monetary indicators was conducted, which showed their manageability and relative stability. It’s proved that the main inflationary trend in Ukraine is characterized by uncertainty, formed under the influence of non-monetary factors of a subjective nature, which are outside the influence of monetary policy. These and other non-market factors provoked a reduction in international reserves and instability in the foreign exchange market. NBU reacted by introducing pre-emptive currency restrictions. It was determined that in order to avoid panic in the foreign exchange market, the NBU made such important and prompt decisions as fixing the exchange rate, introducing the necessary restrictions on the purchase of foreign currency and cross-border currency transactions, restricting withdrawal of funds from foreign currency accounts, providing the possibility of exchanging cash hryvnias abroad. To avoid uncontrolled devaluation and capital outflow, the NBU supported the foreign exchange market with interventions. Anti-crisis measures aimed at maintaining the liquidity of the banking system were analysed, including operations with certificates of deposit and government bonds, which in the conditions of martial law don't always achieve the goals of ensuring financial stability. These and other measures helped the regulator maintain the banking system's overall stability and uninterrupted operation.
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0.60
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20.00%
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