Democratic Dead Spots: Local Elections and Human Development in Brazil

ABSTRACT Democracy’s proponents argue that decentralisation improves service delivery, expands local accountability, and engages citizens in public life. However, the combination of democratisation and decentralisation sometimes sustains subnational authoritarianism, resulting in differential redistribution of power that limit citizens’ ability to pursue and secure public goods. In this article we ask: To what extent do authoritarian enclaves affect well-being? Few studies have systematically examined how basic democratic failures affect human development outcomes at subnational levels. We address this gap by investigating the effects of local “democratic dead spots” in Brazil. This approach yields the first large-scale quantitative analysis of the consequences of subnational authoritarianism for human development. Our unique dataset covers Brazil’s 5,570 municipalities from 2006 to 2018 and lets us estimate the effects of local elections on human development over time and across space, while controlling for common explanations for human development (e.g. local governance, wealth, social policy, and partisanship). We find that local democratic dead spots are associated with systemically low levels of human development performance. Following uncompetitive elections, health outcomes are systemically lower over five years: an entire mayoral term and one year beyond in comparison to other, very similar municipalities. Education outcomes are also systemically lower, but the effect does not extend beyond one mayoral term. The cumulative results suggest that uncompetitive elections undermine human development, at the very least in the short to medium term.