对正度日模型进行统计参数化和评估,以估计1979年至2022年南极洲的地表融化

IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Cryosphere Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI:10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023
Yaowen Zheng, N. Golledge, Alexandra Gossart, G. Picard, M. Leduc-Leballeur
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要表面融化是南极洲冰架崩塌的主要驱动因素之一,随着全球气候继续变暖,由于气温与融化之间存在统计上显著的正相关关系,预计未来这种现象还会增加。地表融化加剧将影响南极冰盖的物质平衡,并通过动态反馈引起全球平均海平面(GMSL)的变化。然而,目前对南极洲表面融化的了解仍然有限,因为在量化表面融化和理解过去、现在和未来的表面融化驱动过程方面存在不确定性。在这里,我们构建了一个新的网格-单元级空间分布的正度日(PDD)模型,该模型采用2 m空气温度再分析数据进行强迫,并通过最小化卫星估计误差和每个计算单元上的地表能量平衡(SEB)模型输出来进行空间参数化。我们通过进行拟合优度检验和交叉验证来评估PDD模型。我们评估我们的参数化方法的准确性,基于PDD模型的性能,当考虑所有计算单元作为一个整体时,独立于参数化选择的时间窗口。我们通过在用于PDD参数化的训练数据(卫星估计和SEB模型输出)中添加±10%进行敏感性实验,并通过在2米的空气温度场中添加恒温扰动(+1、+2、+3、+4和+5°C)来对PDD模型施加压力进行敏感性实验。我们发现,PDD熔体的范围和数量的变化与训练数据的变化类似,具有稳定的统计显著相关性,并且PDD熔体数量随温度扰动呈非线性增加,这表明了我们的参数化的一致性以及PDD模式对变暖气候情景的适用性。在讨论的限制范围内,我们建议适当的参数化PDD模型可以成为探索卫星时代以后南极表面融化的有价值的工具。
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Statistically parameterizing and evaluating a positive degree-day model to estimate surface melt in Antarctica from 1979 to 2022
Abstract. Surface melting is one of the primary drivers of ice shelf collapse in Antarctica and is expected to increase in the future as the global climate continues to warm because there is a statistically significant positive relationship between air temperature and melting. Enhanced surface melt will impact the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and, through dynamic feedbacks, induce changes in global mean sea level (GMSL). However, the current understanding of surface melt in Antarctica remains limited in terms of the uncertainties in quantifying surface melt and understanding the driving processes of surface melt in past, present and future contexts. Here, we construct a novel grid-cell-level spatially distributed positive degree-day (PDD) model, forced with 2 m air temperature reanalysis data and spatially parameterized by minimizing the error with respect to satellite estimates and surface energy balance (SEB) model outputs on each computing cell over the period 1979 to 2022. We evaluate the PDD model by performing a goodness-of-fit test and cross-validation. We assess the accuracy of our parameterization method, based on the performance of the PDD model when considering all computing cells as a whole, independently of the time window chosen for parameterization. We conduct a sensitivity experiment by adding ±10 % to the training data (satellite estimates and SEB model outputs) used for PDD parameterization and a sensitivity experiment by adding constant temperature perturbations (+1, +2, +3, +4 and +5 ∘C) to the 2 m air temperature field to force the PDD model. We find that the PDD melt extent and amounts change analogously to the variations in the training data with steady statistically significant correlations and that the PDD melt amounts increase nonlinearly with the temperature perturbations, demonstrating the consistency of our parameterization and the applicability of the PDD model to warmer climate scenarios. Within the limitations discussed, we suggest that an appropriately parameterized PDD model can be a valuable tool for exploring Antarctic surface melt beyond the satellite era.
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来源期刊
Cryosphere
Cryosphere GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
17.30%
发文量
240
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: The Cryosphere (TC) is a not-for-profit international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and discussion of research articles, short communications, and review papers on all aspects of frozen water and ground on Earth and on other planetary bodies. The main subject areas are the following: ice sheets and glaciers; planetary ice bodies; permafrost and seasonally frozen ground; seasonal snow cover; sea ice; river and lake ice; remote sensing, numerical modelling, in situ and laboratory studies of the above and including studies of the interaction of the cryosphere with the rest of the climate system.
期刊最新文献
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