巴基斯坦与四方安全对话:当前和未来看法

IF 0.2 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IPRI Journal Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI:10.31945/iprij.190102
B.D. Clarke
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引用次数: 3

摘要

四方安全对话(Quad或QSD)是一个由美国、印度、日本和澳大利亚组成的多边平台,旨在巩固未来的亚太秩序,有可能对巴基斯坦的国际地位产生重大影响。作为一个重要的地区行动者,巴基斯坦对这一平台的反应将具有影响力。本文讨论了巴基斯坦可能看待四方会谈及其后果的方式。它分析了四方会谈的性质、巴基斯坦的外交政策和当前的地缘政治趋势,为讨论提供了一个框架。然后,它概述了四方会谈可能采取的两种形式,积极和合作,并探讨了巴基斯坦可能的看法和反应。研究发现,在四边形为进攻型的情况下,巴基斯坦会抵抗压力并寻求外部支持,这可能会引发更大的战略竞争,而在四边形为合作型的情况下,巴基斯坦可能愿意采取平衡的外交政策。这些发现表明,在其他问题正在推动与巴基斯坦的国际接触之际,考虑这种长期影响的重要性。
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Pakistan and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue: Current and Future Perceptions
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad or QSD), a proposed multilateral platform consisting of the United States (US), India, Japan and Australia intended to underpin a future Asia-Pacific order, has the potential to significantly impact Pakistan‟s international standing. As an important regional actor, Pakistan‟s responses to such a platform will be influential. This article discusses possible ways Pakistan is likely to perceive the Quad and its consequences. It analyses the nature of the Quad, Pakistan‟s foreign policy and current geopolitical trends to provide a framework for discussion. It then outlines two potential forms the Quad may take, aggressive and cooperative, and explores Pakistan‟s likely perceptions and responses. It finds that in case of an aggressive Quad, Pakistan will resist pressure and seek external support which may trigger greater strategic competition, whereas it may be willing to adopt a balanced foreign policy in the case of a cooperative Quad. These findings demonstrate the importance of considering such long-term implications at a time when other concerns are driving international engagement with Pakistan.
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来源期刊
IPRI Journal
IPRI Journal INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-
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11
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