Return or not return: examining the determinants of return intentions among migrant workers in Chinese cities

ABSTRACT Well-developed cities have long featured as favoured destinations for Chinese migrant workers. In recent years, however, the incidence of return migration has increased in China, with a significant impact on economic development and social governance at both the origins and destinations. Owing to the limited availability of data, the return intentions of migrant workers at the national level have gone largely unexplored. Using data from the 2016 China Migrant Dynamic Survey (CMDS), the study investigates the return intentions of migrant workers residing in destination cities. Econometric data analysis indicates that family connections (i.e. family members living together, and whether to migrate with children) and housing factors (i.e. housing ownership, housing expenditure proportion, housing tenure, and group living) have significant effects on return intentions and that social and spatial factors (i.e. type of industry, employment status, insurance coverage, migration distance, and duration of stay) also play significant roles. Our results point as well to the influence of geographical location on return intentions. The study concludes with recommendations regarding the formulation of population management policies.