The Linkage Between Fiscal Policy and Non-Performing Household Loans in Turkey

Abstract Frequent changes in fiscal policies are the main cause of credit risk. To prevent households from increasing their non-performing loans, the government can use various policies and instruments. One of these tools is tax regulations, with a particular focus on the value-added tax. This paper examines whether tax policies have affected non-performing household loans in Turkey over the period from 2017 to 2021. To acquire meaningful empirical results, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration model have been applied. The results of analysis indicated that the effect of tax regulations on non-performing household loans is quite strong. It can be demonstrated that the strength of the income effect generated by tax cuts might be robust.