VI. Netherlands Defence and Security Policy: Coping with the ‘New Normal’?

Defence Planning in the New Era of Certainty Uncertainty is an overused term these days when it comes to security policy and defence planning in Europe. Of course, international relations and wars are fundamentally non-linear; rapid technological change, geopolitical shifts and societal upheaval are also sources of uncertainty. The current era definitely qualifies as a time of change, with liberalism claimed to be in retreat; the West losing its dominance in international politics as well as its military superiority; waning influence of international institutions such as the EU, the UN and NATO; and Asia increasingly the most important locus of geopolitical developments. But uncertainty can also be over-emphasised. Not all risks are equal; some are closer to home than others and some threaten vital and strategic interests, whereas others may ‘merely’ threaten stability or economic interests. In this respect, life for European defence planners has, regrettably, become relatively straightforward since 2014. Russia’s annexation of Crimea has reduced uncertainty: in addition to preparing for interventions in the ‘arc of instability’, European militaries must now re-learn and re-equip to deter and potentially fight inter-state war on the European continent. Whether that certainty will translate into defence policies that will reduce security risks is still an open question. Indeed, as this chapter argues, the Netherlands is an illustrative case study that suggests this new age of certainty for defence planners offers no grounds for optimism