全球伊斯兰股票市场与-à-vis新冠肺炎动荡的映射

Muhamad R. Rizaldy, S. Rahayu
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引用次数: 3

摘要

目的——新冠肺炎通常影响经济活动和增长,包括全球伊斯兰股指的走势。本实验研究旨在分析和绘制全球伊斯兰股票市场竞争图,并确定哪些国家在面临新冠肺炎动荡时表现最佳。方法——这项研究是通过模拟全球伊斯兰股票投资组合的形成,并根据每个国家的投资分配权重进行排名来进行的。所使用的数据是新冠肺炎危机第一年12个国家的月度数据,这些国家提供伊斯兰股票指数,是道琼斯全球伊斯兰指数和/或富时伊斯兰指数的组成部分。本研究采用单一指数模型作为全球投资组合形成的方法。调查结果——我们的分析显示,在新冠肺炎危机期的第一年,中国、日本、土耳其和马来西亚这四个权重最大的国家是风险相对表现最好的国家,也是对全球系统性市场风险和动荡最具防御力的国家。另一方面,有三个国家被淘汰,因为它们的贝塔超额回报率低于截止点,这些国家是英国、阿拉伯联合酋长国和加拿大,这意味着这些国家的回报不值得冒险。原创——尽管一些研究分析了新冠肺炎危机期间伊斯兰股票市场的行为,但没有一项研究试图绘制反映组成国竞争力及其竞争的全球伊斯兰股票市场。实际意义——本研究认为,如果伊斯兰跨国投资者在面临新冠肺炎动荡时,通过考虑本研究生成的全球地图来分配资金,投资者将拥有一个全球伊斯兰投资组合,其最佳回报率高于市场回报率,最小风险低于市场风险。
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Mapping the global Islamic equity market vis-à-vis the COVID-19 turbulence
Purpose – COVID-19 typically affects economic activity and growth, including the movement of global Islamic stock indices. This experimental study intends to analyse and map the global Islamic equity markets competition and identify which countries have the best performance while facing the turbulence of COVID-19. Methodology – This research was conducted by simulating the formation of a global Islamic stock portfolio and ranking based on weighting of investment allocations in each country. The data used were monthly data during the first year of the COVID-19 crisis period from 12 countries that provide an Islamic stock index and are constituents of Dow Jones Global Islamic Indices and/or FTSE Shariah. The Single Index Model was employed as the method in the formation of the global portfolio in this research. Findings – Our analysis revealed that four countries that deserve the biggest weights, namely China, Japan, Turkey, and Malaysia, were the countries with the best relative performance compared to their risk and the most defensive countries to the global systematic market risk and turbulence during the first year of COVID-19 crisis period. On the other hand, three countries were eliminated as their Excess Return to Beta were lower than the Cut-Off Point, these countries were the United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates, and Canada, which means that the returns of these countries were not worth the risks. Originality – While some studies have analysed the behaviour of Islamic stock markets during the COVID-19 crisis, none of them tried to map the global Islamic stock market that reflects the competitiveness of the constituent countries and the competition amongst them. Practical implication – This research argues that if Islamic multinational investors allocate their funds while facing the COVID-19 turbulence by considering the global map generated from this study, the investors will have a global Islamic investment portfolio with an optimal return which is higher than the market return and minimal risk which is lower than the market risk.
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