西非国家的国产产品能否取代进口产品?Marshall-Lerner-Robinson条件的估计

Laurent Oloukoi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的本文通过对西非经济和货币联盟(WAEMU)国家MLRC的测试,考察了这些国家的国内生产是否可以取代进口。设计/方法论/方法蒙代尔-弗莱明模型(MMF)是本文采用的分析框架,借鉴了Thirlwall(1979)的进口需求和出口供应函数估计。这项研究涵盖了1990年至2021年西非的四个国家。所使用的估计程序是协整的自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法。调查结果表明,西非经货联盟国家的进口倾向很强。一些国家证实了短期内对进口价格影响不显著的假设,而只有多哥在短期和长期内满足MLRC。独创性/价值本研究提出了几个独创性:(1)以清晰的分析框架评估MLRC;(2) 与其他研究不同,本文从理论、计量和实证的角度对MLRC进行了量化;(3) 本文介绍了各国的结果,以揭示各国之间的异质性;(4) 本研究通过考虑最初贸易平衡不平衡的情况,增加了推导Robinson的Marshall–Lerner条件。
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Can national productions replace imports in West African countries? Estimation of the Marshall–Lerner–Robinson condition (MLRC)
PurposeThis article examines if the national productions of West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries can be substituted for the imports by testing MLRC in these countries.Design/methodology/approachThe Mundell–Fleming model (MMF) is the analytical framework adopted in this paper with import demand and export supply functions estimation borrowed to Thirlwall (1979). This study covers four countries in West Africa from 1990 to 2021. The estimation procedure used is an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration.FindingsThe findings reveal that there is a strong marginal propensity to import in the WAEMU countries. The hypothesis of a non-significant price effect on imports in the short-term is confirmed for several countries while only Togo satisfies the MLRC in the short and long run.Originality/valueThis study presents several originalities: (1) it evaluates MLRC with a clear analytical framework; (2) unlike other studies, this article quantifies the MLRC from a theoretical, econometric and empirical point of view; (3) this article presents the results country by country in order to reveal heterogeneity between countries; (4) this study adds to the Marshall–Lerner condition for the derivation of Robinson by considering a situation where initially the trade balance is not in equilibrium.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
7.70%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: African Journal of Economic and Management Studies (AJEMS) advances both theoretical and empirical research, informs policies and practices, and improves understanding of how economic and business decisions shape the lives of Africans. AJEMS is a multidisciplinary journal and welcomes papers from all the major disciplines in economics, business and management studies.
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