中国、印度和印太地区的竞争

IF 0.8 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Indian Growth and Development Review Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI:10.1108/igdr-06-2019-0055
P. Robertson, Jingdong Yuan, Harsha Konara Mudiyanselage
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引用次数: 1

摘要

目的本文旨在描述中国的快速增长和日益增长的资源依赖如何改变其与印度的关系以及各自的国防战略。我们特别考虑中国的“一带一路”倡议倡议、印度的“向东行动”政策以及印度洋和南海地区的战略和经济价值。设计/方法论/方法作者使用Richardson-Baumol军备竞赛模型没有发现中国和印度军费开支之间相互作用的计量经济学证据。同样,在一项关于军费开支的跨县小组数据研究中,他们发现中国的军费开支对其他国家的军费开支没有独立影响。作者还表明,一旦考虑到工资成本和其他军事通胀来源,实际国防开支增长的模式就远没有名义数据所显示的那么激烈。尽管如此,它们表明,中国一直在进行激烈的军事现代化,国防开支中的资本-劳动力比例迅速上升。研究结果作者几乎没有发现传统军备竞赛的证据,但也表明,中国和印度在较小程度上一直在调整其军事能力,以应对这些新的安全风险,同时保持经济的整体军事负担。研究局限性/含义经济计量分析受到数据可用性的限制,并且必然是历史性的,而安全状况非常不稳定,可能在短期内发生变化。实际含义本文确定了可能影响中国和印度未来几年对国防开支态度的因素。社会含义本文发现,不存在传统意义上的军备竞赛,而可能存在新技术和军事现代化方面的军备竞赛。原创性/价值这是经济学中一个未被充分挖掘的话题。作者采用了跨学科的方法,展示了如何使用经济学工具来帮助理解国际关系中的这一重要问题。
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China, India and the contest for the Indo-Pacific
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to describe how China’s rapid growth and increasing resource dependence have changed its relationship with India and their respective defense strategies. In particular, we consider China's Belt and Road Initiative, India's “Act East” policy and the strategic and economic value of the Indian Ocean and South China Sea regions. Design/methodology/approach The authors find no econometric evidence of interactions between China and India’s military spending using a Richardson-Baumol arms race model. Likewise, in a cross-county panel data study of military spending, they find that China’s military spending has no independent effect on military spending in other countries. The authors also show that once wage costs and other sources of military inflation are accounted for, the pattern of real defense spending growth is much less intense than is suggested by nominal data. Nevertheless, they show that China has been undertaking intense military modernization with rapidly rising capital-labor ratios in its defense spending. Findings The authors find little evidence of a traditional arms race, but also show that China, and to a lesser extent India, have been realigning their military capabilities to these new security risks while maintaining overall military burden on the economy. Research limitations/implications Econometric analysis is limited by data availability and is necessarily historical, whereas the security situation is very fluid and may change in the short term. Practical implications The paper identifies factors that are likely to influence China and India's attitudes to defense spending in the coming years. Social implications The paper finds that there is not an arms race in the traditional sense but may be an arms race in terms of new technologies and military modernization. Originality/value This is a very much underexplored topic in economics. The authors take an interdisciplinary approach showing how economics tools can be used to help understand this important issue in international relations.
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7
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