Integrating genetic and biophysical approaches to estimate connectivity in an isolated, insular system: case of the culturally important marine gastropod Monetaria caputdraconis

Abstract Population connectivity has a fundamental role in metapopulation dynamics with important implications for population persistence in space and time. Oceanic islands, such as Easter Island (EI) and the Salas & Gómez Island (SG), are ideal for the study of population connectivity because they are separated by 415 km and isolated from other islands in the Pacific Ocean by >2000 km. Considering that the dispersal process could play a critical role in the persistence of their populations, we evaluated the connectivity pattern of the endemic gastropod Monetaria caputdraconis between EI and SG using population genetics and biophysical modelling. Eleven microsatellite loci did not show differences in the allelic frequency of individuals located in EI and SG, suggesting the presence of one genetic population. Historical reciprocal migration implies that 0.49% of the recruits in EI come from SG and 0.37% in SG come from EI. Considering year-round larval release and a larval development of 2 weeks in the plankton, a Lagrangian experiment based on a regional oceanic simulation indicated a weak population connectivity with a high rate of self-recruitment. Interestingly, self-recruitment showed both monthly and interannual variation ranging from 1 to 45% of returned larvae, with lower values estimated in SG compared to EI. The results suggest that few larvae/individuals arrive at each other's island, possibly due to stochastic events, such as rafting. Overall, our results indicate that both islands maintain population connectivity despite their distance; these findings have implications for designing conservation strategies in this region.