Distributional range shifts of Western Atlantic benthic Sargassum species (Fucales, Phaeophyceae) under future climate change scenarios

Climate change is altering the world’s marine biota, in particular, their geographic distribution. Sargassum species are foundation species that play critical ecological roles in tropical benthic communities, providing food, habitat heterogeneity and shelter for a wide range of marine organisms. To understand how future changes in abiotic variables could affect the distribution of Sargassum species along the Western Atlantic Ocean, we performed Ecological Niche Models (ENM) for 12 benthic Sargassum species. We projected present and future habitat suitability distributions under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 IPCC scenarios. We fit ENM and created ensembles from different algorithms. Our results predict changes in species latitudinal range (niche suitability) in the order of 0.5˚ to 8.1˚ northward, and 0˚ to 5.5˚ southward. Six species are likely to reduce their suitability area from 10% to 80%, while other six species are likely to expand their suitability area from 4% to 168%. Overall, changes in suitability area and latitudinal ranges will increase at larger latitudes for most species while suitability areas will decrease at lower latitudes for half of the species. This pattern is consistent with the expected tropicalization of temperate latitudes following global warming. Such changes can produce considerable losses in ecosystem services maintained by healthy Sargassum beds, particularly at lower latitudes. Our findings highlight the need to improve Sargassum conservation policies and management strategies to avoid the negative effects caused by losses in Sargassum forests.