东欧国家二氧化碳排放分析:潜在排放趋势的作用

Q3 Social Sciences Environmental Economics Pub Date : 2020-06-05 DOI:10.21511/ee.11(1).2020.07
Denizhan Guven, M. Özgür Kayalica, G. Kayakutlu
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文旨在运用结构时间序列模型(STSM)分析能源消费、经济结构和制造业产出对东欧国家二氧化碳排放的影响。使用1990-2017年期间的年度数据,使用了几个解释因素来构建模型。这些因素包括:一次能源供应总量、人均GDP和制造业增加值,以及随机潜在排放趋势(UET)。检测了所有变量对二氧化碳排放的显著影响。根据估算函数,到2027年,白俄罗斯、乌克兰、罗马尼亚、俄罗斯、塞尔维亚和匈牙利的二氧化碳排放量将分别减少至5320万吨、1.032亿吨、3610亿吨、1.528亿吨、3600万吨和3610亿吨。与其他国家不同,波兰的二氧化碳排放量将在2027年扩大到3.122亿吨,因为波兰的化石燃料供应(即煤炭和石油)份额非常高。结果还表明,对二氧化碳排放影响最大的因素是一次能源供应总量。此外,对于波兰、罗马尼亚、匈牙利和白俄罗斯,经济增长对二氧化碳排放的长期影响为负,而对俄罗斯、乌克兰和塞尔维亚则为正。塞尔维亚和白俄罗斯计算出二氧化碳排放的最高长期制造业增值弹性。
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CO2 emissions analysis for East European countries: the role of underlying emission trend
This paper aims to analyze the impact of energy consumption, economic structure, and manufacturing output on the CO2 emissions of East European countries by applying the Structural Time Series Model (STSM). Several explanatory factors are used to construct the model using annual data of the 1990–2017 period. The factors are: total primary energy supply, GDP per capita and manufacturing value added, and, finally, a stochastic Underlying Emission Trend (UET). The significant effects of all variables on CO2 emissions are detected. Based on the estimated functions, CO2 emissions of Belarus, Ukraine, Romania, Russia, Serbia, and Hungary will decrease, by 2027, to 53.2 Mt, 103.2 Mt, 36.1 Mt, 1528.2 Mt, 36 Mt, and 36.1 Mt, respectively. Distinct from other countries, CO2 emissions of Poland will extend to 312.2 Mt in 2027 due to the very high share of fossil-based supply (i.e., coal and oil) in Poland. The results also indicate that the most forceful factor in CO2 emissions is the total primary energy supply. Furthermore, for Poland, Romania, Hungary, and Belarus, the long-term impact of economic growth on CO2 emissions is negative, while it is positive for Russia, Ukraine, and Serbia. The highest long-term manufacturing value-added elasticity of CO2 emissions is calculated for Serbia and Belarus.
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来源期刊
Environmental Economics
Environmental Economics Social Sciences-Public Administration
CiteScore
3.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
9
审稿时长
12 weeks
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