中国天山地区潜在降雪物候的变化:过去、现在和未来

IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Cryosphere Pub Date : 2023-06-22 DOI:10.5194/tc-17-2437-2023
Xuemei Li, Xinyu Liu, Kaixin Zhao, Xu Zhang, Lan-hai Li
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We then explored the spatial–temporal variation in\nall three PSP indicators in the past, present, and future across the Chinese\nTianshan mountainous region (CTMR) based on the observed daily air\ntemperature from 26 meteorological stations during 1961–2017/2020 combined\nwith data from 14 models from CMIP6 (Phase 6 of the Coupled Model\nIntercomparison Project) under four different scenarios (SSP126, SSP245,\nSSP370, and SSP585, where SSP represents Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) during 2021–2100. The study showed that the SPSS, EPSS,\nand LPSS indicators could accurately describe the PSP characteristics across\nthe study area. In the past and present, the potential snowfall season\nstarted on 2 November, ended on 18 March, and lasted for about\n4.5 months across the CTMR on average. During 1961–2017/2020,\nthe rate of advancing the EPSS (−1.6 d per decade) was faster than that of\npostponing the SPSS (1.2 d per decade). 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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要气候变暖的加速导致了地球寒冷地区更快的固液循环和固体水储存的减少。尽管降雪是冷层最关键的输入,但降雪的酚学或潜在降雪酚学(PSP)尚未得到彻底研究,也缺乏PSP的指标。因此,我们提出了三个创新指标,即潜在降雪季节的开始(SPSS)、潜在降雪季节结束(EPSS)和潜在降雪季节长度(LPSS),来表征PSP。然后,我们探索了过去、现在和未来三个PSP指标的时空变化,基于1961–2017/2020年期间26个气象站的观测日气温,结合CMIP6(耦合模型相互比较项目第6阶段)在四种不同情景(SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585,其中SSP代表共享社会经济路径)下的14个模型的数据2021–2100。研究表明,SPSS、EPSS和LPSS指标可以准确描述整个研究区域的PSP特征。在过去和现在,潜在的降雪季节从11月2日开始,到3月18日结束,整个CTMR平均持续约4.5个月。在1961–2017/2020年期间,EPSS的推进率(−1.6 每十年d)的速度快于使用SPSS的速度(1.2 每十年d)。研究还发现,启动时间存在显著延迟(2-13 d) 以及结束时间的进步(1-13 d) ,分别减少了3–26 d用于LPSS。与南部相比,北部和中部的潜在降雪季节开始得更早,结束得较晚,持续时间更长。同样,预计2021–2100年期间,SPSS、EPSS和LPSS指标在四种排放情景下也会有所不同。在最高排放情景SSP585下,启动时间预计将推迟41 d、 而结束时间预计将提前23 d穿过研究区。这一变化预计将使秋季的潜在时间缩短61天 d(约2个月),在SSP585情景下,2100年潜在降雪季节的长度将仅持续2.5个月。在所有四种情况下,由于开始时间延迟和结束时间提前,CTRR西部和西南部的潜在降雪季节的长度将压缩更多天。这表明,在降雪强度不变的情况下,年总降雪量可能会减少,包括数量和频率,导致积雪或雪团减少,这最终将通过降低对太阳辐射的反射率而导致更快的变暖。这项研究为捕捉高山地区潜在的降雪现象提供了新的见解,并可以很容易地推广到世界其他以雪为主的地区。它还可以为固体水资源的降雪监测和预警提供信息。
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Change in the potential snowfall phenology: past, present, and future in the Chinese Tianshan mountainous region, Central Asia
Abstract. The acceleration of climate warming has led to a faster solid–liquid water cycle and a decrease in solid water storage in cold regions of the Earth. Although snowfall is the most critical input for the cryosphere, the phenology of snowfall, or potential snowfall phenology (PSP), has not been thoroughly studied, and there is a lack of indicators for PSP. For this reason, we have proposed three innovative indicators, namely, the start of potential snowfall season (SPSS), the end of potential snowfall season (EPSS), and the length of potential snowfall season (LPSS), to characterize the PSP. We then explored the spatial–temporal variation in all three PSP indicators in the past, present, and future across the Chinese Tianshan mountainous region (CTMR) based on the observed daily air temperature from 26 meteorological stations during 1961–2017/2020 combined with data from 14 models from CMIP6 (Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) under four different scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, where SSP represents Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) during 2021–2100. The study showed that the SPSS, EPSS, and LPSS indicators could accurately describe the PSP characteristics across the study area. In the past and present, the potential snowfall season started on 2 November, ended on 18 March, and lasted for about 4.5 months across the CTMR on average. During 1961–2017/2020, the rate of advancing the EPSS (−1.6 d per decade) was faster than that of postponing the SPSS (1.2 d per decade). It was also found that there was a significant delay in the starting time (2–13 d) and advancement in the ending time (1–13 d), respectively, resulting in a reduction of 3–26 d for the LPSS. The potential snowfall season started earlier, ended later, and lasted longer in the north and center compared with the south. Similarly, the SPSS, EPSS, and LPSS indicators are also expected to vary under the four emission scenarios during 2021–2100. Under the highest emission scenario, SSP585, the starting time is expected to be postponed by up to 41 d, while the ending time is expected to be advanced by up to 23 d across the study area. This change is expected to reduce the length of the potential snowfall season by up to 61 d (about 2 months), and the length of the potential snowfall season will only last 2.5 months in the 2100s under the SSP585 scenario. The length of the potential snowfall season in the west and southwest of the CTMR will be compressed by more days due to a more delayed starting time and an advanced ending time under all four scenarios. This suggests that, with constant snowfall intensity, annual total snowfall may decrease, including the amount and frequency, leading to a reduction in snow cover or mass, which will ultimately contribute to more rapid warming through the lower reflectivity to solar radiation. This research provides new insights into capturing the potential snowfall phenology in the alpine region and can be easily extended to other snow-dominated areas worldwide. It can also help inform snowfall monitoring and early warning for solid water resources.
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来源期刊
Cryosphere
Cryosphere GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
17.30%
发文量
240
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: The Cryosphere (TC) is a not-for-profit international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and discussion of research articles, short communications, and review papers on all aspects of frozen water and ground on Earth and on other planetary bodies. The main subject areas are the following: ice sheets and glaciers; planetary ice bodies; permafrost and seasonally frozen ground; seasonal snow cover; sea ice; river and lake ice; remote sensing, numerical modelling, in situ and laboratory studies of the above and including studies of the interaction of the cryosphere with the rest of the climate system.
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