Xuemei Li, Xinyu Liu, Kaixin Zhao, Xu Zhang, Lan-hai Li
{"title":"中国天山地区潜在降雪物候的变化:过去、现在和未来","authors":"Xuemei Li, Xinyu Liu, Kaixin Zhao, Xu Zhang, Lan-hai Li","doi":"10.5194/tc-17-2437-2023","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The acceleration of climate warming has led to a faster\nsolid–liquid water cycle and a decrease in solid water storage in cold\nregions of the Earth. Although snowfall is the most critical input for the\ncryosphere, the phenology of snowfall, or potential snowfall phenology\n(PSP), has not been thoroughly studied, and there is a lack of indicators\nfor PSP. For this reason, we have proposed three innovative indicators,\nnamely, the start of potential snowfall season (SPSS), the end of potential\nsnowfall season (EPSS), and the length of potential snowfall season (LPSS),\nto characterize the PSP. We then explored the spatial–temporal variation in\nall three PSP indicators in the past, present, and future across the Chinese\nTianshan mountainous region (CTMR) based on the observed daily air\ntemperature from 26 meteorological stations during 1961–2017/2020 combined\nwith data from 14 models from CMIP6 (Phase 6 of the Coupled Model\nIntercomparison Project) under four different scenarios (SSP126, SSP245,\nSSP370, and SSP585, where SSP represents Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) during 2021–2100. The study showed that the SPSS, EPSS,\nand LPSS indicators could accurately describe the PSP characteristics across\nthe study area. In the past and present, the potential snowfall season\nstarted on 2 November, ended on 18 March, and lasted for about\n4.5 months across the CTMR on average. During 1961–2017/2020,\nthe rate of advancing the EPSS (−1.6 d per decade) was faster than that of\npostponing the SPSS (1.2 d per decade). It was also found that there was a\nsignificant delay in the starting time (2–13 d) and advancement in the\nending time (1–13 d), respectively, resulting in a reduction of 3–26 d\nfor the LPSS. The potential snowfall season started earlier, ended later,\nand lasted longer in the north and center compared with the south. Similarly,\nthe SPSS, EPSS, and LPSS indicators are also expected to vary under the four\nemission scenarios during 2021–2100. Under the highest emission scenario,\nSSP585, the starting time is expected to be postponed by up to 41 d,\nwhile the ending time is expected to be advanced by up to 23 d across the\nstudy area. This change is expected to reduce the length of the potential\nsnowfall season by up to 61 d (about 2 months), and the length of the\npotential snowfall season will only last 2.5 months in the 2100s\nunder the SSP585 scenario. The length of the potential snowfall season in\nthe west and southwest of the CTMR will be compressed by more days due to a\nmore delayed starting time and an advanced ending time under all four\nscenarios. This suggests that, with constant snowfall intensity, annual total\nsnowfall may decrease, including the amount and frequency, leading to a\nreduction in snow cover or mass, which will ultimately contribute to more\nrapid warming through the lower reflectivity to solar radiation. This\nresearch provides new insights into capturing the potential snowfall\nphenology in the alpine region and can be easily extended to other\nsnow-dominated areas worldwide. It can also help inform snowfall monitoring\nand early warning for solid water resources.\n","PeriodicalId":56315,"journal":{"name":"Cryosphere","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Change in the potential snowfall phenology: past, present, and future in the Chinese Tianshan mountainous region, Central Asia\",\"authors\":\"Xuemei Li, Xinyu Liu, Kaixin Zhao, Xu Zhang, Lan-hai Li\",\"doi\":\"10.5194/tc-17-2437-2023\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract. The acceleration of climate warming has led to a faster\\nsolid–liquid water cycle and a decrease in solid water storage in cold\\nregions of the Earth. Although snowfall is the most critical input for the\\ncryosphere, the phenology of snowfall, or potential snowfall phenology\\n(PSP), has not been thoroughly studied, and there is a lack of indicators\\nfor PSP. For this reason, we have proposed three innovative indicators,\\nnamely, the start of potential snowfall season (SPSS), the end of potential\\nsnowfall season (EPSS), and the length of potential snowfall season (LPSS),\\nto characterize the PSP. We then explored the spatial–temporal variation in\\nall three PSP indicators in the past, present, and future across the Chinese\\nTianshan mountainous region (CTMR) based on the observed daily air\\ntemperature from 26 meteorological stations during 1961–2017/2020 combined\\nwith data from 14 models from CMIP6 (Phase 6 of the Coupled Model\\nIntercomparison Project) under four different scenarios (SSP126, SSP245,\\nSSP370, and SSP585, where SSP represents Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) during 2021–2100. The study showed that the SPSS, EPSS,\\nand LPSS indicators could accurately describe the PSP characteristics across\\nthe study area. In the past and present, the potential snowfall season\\nstarted on 2 November, ended on 18 March, and lasted for about\\n4.5 months across the CTMR on average. During 1961–2017/2020,\\nthe rate of advancing the EPSS (−1.6 d per decade) was faster than that of\\npostponing the SPSS (1.2 d per decade). It was also found that there was a\\nsignificant delay in the starting time (2–13 d) and advancement in the\\nending time (1–13 d), respectively, resulting in a reduction of 3–26 d\\nfor the LPSS. The potential snowfall season started earlier, ended later,\\nand lasted longer in the north and center compared with the south. Similarly,\\nthe SPSS, EPSS, and LPSS indicators are also expected to vary under the four\\nemission scenarios during 2021–2100. Under the highest emission scenario,\\nSSP585, the starting time is expected to be postponed by up to 41 d,\\nwhile the ending time is expected to be advanced by up to 23 d across the\\nstudy area. This change is expected to reduce the length of the potential\\nsnowfall season by up to 61 d (about 2 months), and the length of the\\npotential snowfall season will only last 2.5 months in the 2100s\\nunder the SSP585 scenario. The length of the potential snowfall season in\\nthe west and southwest of the CTMR will be compressed by more days due to a\\nmore delayed starting time and an advanced ending time under all four\\nscenarios. This suggests that, with constant snowfall intensity, annual total\\nsnowfall may decrease, including the amount and frequency, leading to a\\nreduction in snow cover or mass, which will ultimately contribute to more\\nrapid warming through the lower reflectivity to solar radiation. This\\nresearch provides new insights into capturing the potential snowfall\\nphenology in the alpine region and can be easily extended to other\\nsnow-dominated areas worldwide. It can also help inform snowfall monitoring\\nand early warning for solid water resources.\\n\",\"PeriodicalId\":56315,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Cryosphere\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-06-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Cryosphere\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2437-2023\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cryosphere","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2437-2023","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Change in the potential snowfall phenology: past, present, and future in the Chinese Tianshan mountainous region, Central Asia
Abstract. The acceleration of climate warming has led to a faster
solid–liquid water cycle and a decrease in solid water storage in cold
regions of the Earth. Although snowfall is the most critical input for the
cryosphere, the phenology of snowfall, or potential snowfall phenology
(PSP), has not been thoroughly studied, and there is a lack of indicators
for PSP. For this reason, we have proposed three innovative indicators,
namely, the start of potential snowfall season (SPSS), the end of potential
snowfall season (EPSS), and the length of potential snowfall season (LPSS),
to characterize the PSP. We then explored the spatial–temporal variation in
all three PSP indicators in the past, present, and future across the Chinese
Tianshan mountainous region (CTMR) based on the observed daily air
temperature from 26 meteorological stations during 1961–2017/2020 combined
with data from 14 models from CMIP6 (Phase 6 of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project) under four different scenarios (SSP126, SSP245,
SSP370, and SSP585, where SSP represents Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) during 2021–2100. The study showed that the SPSS, EPSS,
and LPSS indicators could accurately describe the PSP characteristics across
the study area. In the past and present, the potential snowfall season
started on 2 November, ended on 18 March, and lasted for about
4.5 months across the CTMR on average. During 1961–2017/2020,
the rate of advancing the EPSS (−1.6 d per decade) was faster than that of
postponing the SPSS (1.2 d per decade). It was also found that there was a
significant delay in the starting time (2–13 d) and advancement in the
ending time (1–13 d), respectively, resulting in a reduction of 3–26 d
for the LPSS. The potential snowfall season started earlier, ended later,
and lasted longer in the north and center compared with the south. Similarly,
the SPSS, EPSS, and LPSS indicators are also expected to vary under the four
emission scenarios during 2021–2100. Under the highest emission scenario,
SSP585, the starting time is expected to be postponed by up to 41 d,
while the ending time is expected to be advanced by up to 23 d across the
study area. This change is expected to reduce the length of the potential
snowfall season by up to 61 d (about 2 months), and the length of the
potential snowfall season will only last 2.5 months in the 2100s
under the SSP585 scenario. The length of the potential snowfall season in
the west and southwest of the CTMR will be compressed by more days due to a
more delayed starting time and an advanced ending time under all four
scenarios. This suggests that, with constant snowfall intensity, annual total
snowfall may decrease, including the amount and frequency, leading to a
reduction in snow cover or mass, which will ultimately contribute to more
rapid warming through the lower reflectivity to solar radiation. This
research provides new insights into capturing the potential snowfall
phenology in the alpine region and can be easily extended to other
snow-dominated areas worldwide. It can also help inform snowfall monitoring
and early warning for solid water resources.
期刊介绍:
The Cryosphere (TC) is a not-for-profit international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and discussion of research articles, short communications, and review papers on all aspects of frozen water and ground on Earth and on other planetary bodies.
The main subject areas are the following:
ice sheets and glaciers;
planetary ice bodies;
permafrost and seasonally frozen ground;
seasonal snow cover;
sea ice;
river and lake ice;
remote sensing, numerical modelling, in situ and laboratory studies of the above and including studies of the interaction of the cryosphere with the rest of the climate system.