Growth models for forecasting the area, production and yield of major cereal crops in Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Although accurate forecasting of the production of major cereal crops is important to make policy decisions related to their supply, demand and import/export, very little work has been done in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to develop the best performing trend models for area, production, and yield of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), teff [Eragrostis tef (Zucc.) Trotter], and maize (Zea mays L.) in Ethiopia, and to provide forecasts for 2019 to 2023. For each crop, the best-performing model was selected among linear, quadratic, exponential growth, and S-curve trend models using five performance measures (mean absolute percent error [MAPE], mean absolute deviation [MAD], mean squared deviation [MSD], coefficient of efficiency [E], and index of agreement [d]). Quadratic trend model was the best for area of wheat and teff, production of wheat, teff, and maize, and wheat and maize yields. S-curve and Linear trend models were the best for area of maize and yield of teff, respectively. Forecasts for 2019 to 2023 using the best-performing model revealed that cultivated area for these three cereals will decrease by 3,581 ha in Ethiopia, but their combined total production will increase by 4,896,630 tons, and productivity of wheat, teff, and maize will increase by 20.3%, 13.2%, and 13.8%, respectively, which is slightly higher than the projected population growth (10.9%) during this time. Although these results indicate that Ethiopia is on track to meet the second SDG, government policymakers and other stakeholders can use these findings to ensure sustainable food and nutrition security in Ethiopia.