Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on future glacial cycles

Abstract. We propose a reduced-complexity process-based model for the long-term evolution of the global ice volume, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and global mean temperature. The model's only external forcings are the orbital forcing and anthropogenic CO2 cumulative emissions. The model consists of a system of three coupled non-linear differential equations representing physical mechanisms relevant for the evolution of the climate–ice sheet–carbon cycle system on timescales longer than thousands of years. Model parameters are calibrated using paleoclimate reconstructions and the results of two Earth system models of intermediate complexity. For a range of parameters values, the model is successful in reproducing the glacial–interglacial cycles of the last 800 kyr, with the best correlation between modelled and global paleo-ice volume of 0.86. Using different model realisations, we produce an assessment of possible trajectories for the next 1 million years under natural and several fossil-fuel CO2 release scenarios. In the natural scenario, the model assigns high probability of occurrence of long interglacials in the periods between the present and 120 kyr after present and between 400 and 500 kyr after present. The next glacial inception is most likely to occur ∼50 kyr after present with full glacial conditions developing ∼90 kyr after present. The model shows that even already achieved cumulative CO2 anthropogenic emissions (500 Pg C) are capable of affecting the climate evolution for up to half a million years, indicating that the beginning of the next glaciation is highly unlikely in the next 120 kyr. High cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions (3000 Pg C or higher), which could potentially be achieved in the next 2 to 3 centuries if humanity does not curb the usage of fossil fuels, will most likely provoke Northern Hemisphere landmass ice-free conditions throughout the next half a million years, postponing the natural occurrence of the next glacial inception to 600 kyr after present or later.