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引用次数: 8
摘要
本研究的重点是基于波浪模型和1979–2016年欧洲再分析中期数据,研究南中国海极端显著波高和近岸重现期波高的时间和空间变化。永兴岛附近的浮标测量数据可与台风经过期间的再分析数据进行比较。南中国海大部分海域的年最大有效波高呈现出统计上显著的上升趋势,而与台风事件的不同特征相关的季节性最大有效波高则出现了统计上不显著的下降或上升趋势。采用非平稳广义极值分析方法,研究了由模拟波浪近岸模型导出的近岸极端有效波高对南海四个近海位置的影响。南海西部百年一遇显著波高增长最快的是0.0033 m yr−1。结果表明,近几十年来,南海近海重现期波高没有明显变化趋势,这可能与该地区强台风的路径有关。
Investigation of trends in extreme significant wave heights in the South China Sea
The focus of this study was the temporal and spatial variations of extreme significant wave heights and nearshore return-period wave heights in the South China Sea, based on the wave model and European Reanalysis-Interim data from 1979–2016. Measured buoy data were available from near Yongxing Island for comparison with the reanalysis data during the passage of typhoons. Annual maximum significant wave heights showed a statistically significant increasing trend over most of the South China Sea, whereas statistically insignificant decreasing or increasing trends were observed for seasonal maximum significant wave heights associated with the different characteristics of the typhoon events. Nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis was used to investigate the influence of nearshore extreme significant wave heights derived from the Simulating Waves Nearshore model at four offshore locations in the South China Sea. The fastest increase of 100-year return significant wave heights was found to be 0.0033 m yr−1 in the western South China Sea. The results show that, in recent decades, no significant variation trends can be found in return-period wave heights at nearshore of South China Sea, which may be related to tracks of intense typhoons in the region.
期刊介绍:
The journal publishes articles on the following themes and topics:
• Original articles focusing on ecosystem-based sciences, ecosystem health and management of marine and aquatic ecosystems
• Reviews, invited perspectives and keynote contributions from conferences
• Special issues on important emerging topics, themes, and ecosystems (climate change, invasive species, HABs, risk assessment, models)