城市道路交叉口碰撞的广义线性建模

A.A. Mekonnen, T. Sipos, Z. Szabó
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引用次数: 2

摘要

由于碰撞数据具有独特的行为,如过度分散,研究人员使用统计方法专门处理碰撞数据的这种独特行为。本研究采用广义线性建模技术来开发模型。假设事故数服从负二项分布,并选择链接函数作为对数链接函数。选择负二项建模技术而不是泊松分布,因为它是许多研究人员最常用的技术,因为碰撞数据可能会遇到过度分散。事故数据集显示其方差和均值之间存在较大的可变性。本研究表明,事故频率分布是高度偏斜的,有大量路段记录为零事故。在比较Akaike信息准则(AIC)和贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)后,选择负二项分布而不是泊松分布。该方法广泛应用于统计数据。模型中估计了22个参数。由于在综合检验中p<0.05,零假设被拒绝,这表明该模型是合理拟合的。模型中最强的变量是路段长度、车道数量、日均交通量、公交车道、公共汽车和无轨电车数量以及重型货车。
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Generalized Linear Modeling of Crashes on Urban Road Links
As crash data have distinctive behavior like over-dispersion, researchers have used statistical methods to deal with this unique behavior of crash data specifically. This study employed generalized linear modeling techniques to develop the model. It was assumed that the accident counts followed negative-binomial distribution, and the link function was chosen to be the log link function. Negative-binomial modeling technique was chosen over Poisson distribution because it is the most used technique by many researchers as crash data may encounter over-dispersion. The accident data set showed greater variability between its variance and mean. The accident frequency distribution is shown in this study that it is highly skewed, with a very high number of road segments registering zero accidents. Negative binomial distribution was chosen over Poisson distribution after comparing Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC). The method is widely applied to count data. Twenty-two parameters were estimated in the model. Since p < 0.05 in the omnibus test, the null hypothesis is rejected, which indicates that the model is reasonably fit. The strongest variables in the model were witnessed to be the length of the links, number of lanes, average daily traffic, bus lane, number of buses and trolleys, and HGVs.
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来源期刊
Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering
Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering Engineering-Automotive Engineering
CiteScore
2.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
47
期刊介绍: Periodica Polytechnica is a publisher of the Budapest University of Technology and Economics. It publishes seven international journals (Architecture, Chemical Engineering, Civil Engineering, Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Social and Management Sciences, Transportation Engineering). The journals have free electronic versions.
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