Does the structure of state budget matter for Egypt’s fiscal deficit? An empirical investigation using an ARDL bounds testing approach

ABSTRACT The current study contributes to the existing literature by investigating the relationship between structure of the State budget and fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio in Egypt over the period 1981/1982–2020/2021. The dynamic relationship between the examined variables is tested using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. The study finds an empirical evidence that supports the hypothesis that budget structure matters for fiscal deficit in Egypt. A higher share of investment expenditure in total government expenditure is correlated with a lower fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio in the long- and short-run. The share of taxes in total government revenue is found to be negatively (positively) associated with the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio in the short-run (long-run). In addition, the current account balance is found to be negatively correlated with the fiscal deficit, in the long-run, which supports the ‘twin deficits hypothesis’ and the ‘current account targeting hypothesis’. Furthermore, the study finds a unidirectional Granger causality relationship that runs from fiscal deficit to government investment expenditure.