衡量尼日利亚社区抗洪能力的模糊逻辑方法

Ezekiel Olaoluwa Olatunji, Oluseye A. Adebimpe, V. Oladokun
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引用次数: 1

摘要

目的抗洪能力是洪水风险管理中的一个重要概念。同时,洪水抵御能力的测量对于为FRM投资提供商业理由至关重要。然而,关于衡量尼日利亚易发洪水社区的抵御能力水平的信息很少。因此,本研究旨在开发一个基于模糊逻辑的模型,用于衡量易发洪水社区实现联合国可持续发展目标(SDG)11和13的复原力,借鉴模糊逻辑文献和现存洪水恢复力的综合。对典型尼日利亚社区的洪水系统进行了概括。随后根据可持续发展目标11和13对系统的变量和参数进行了识别和表征。生成的数据被转换为模糊推理系统(FIS),使用三个输入社区洪水抵御能力维度:自然、社会技术和社会经济因素(SEF)。然后,利用从尼日利亚西南部伊巴丹选定的洪水易发社区获得的初步数据对该模型进行了验证。专家意见用于对选定社区的投入维度进行评级。发现尽管来自同一研究领域(Apete、Ibadan、尼日利亚)的专家提供了各种意见,但由此产生的FIS为各种自然、社会技术和SEF产生了一致的弹性指数。这种方法可以加强社区一级的抗洪能力测量。独创性/价值尽管之前曾尝试在个体财产层面衡量洪水抵御能力(Oladokun等人,2017;Adebimpe等人,2020),但本研究侧重于通过采用模糊逻辑方法来衡量社区层面的洪水抵御能力。基于模糊逻辑的模型可以成为社区层面洪水恢复力测量的工具。它还可以进一步开发用于区域和国家一级的应用。
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A fuzzy logic approach for measuring flood resilience at community level in Nigeria
Purpose Flood resilience is a critical concept in flood risk management (FRM). Meanwhile, flood resilience measurement has become vital for making the business case for investment in FRM. However, information is sparse on measuring the level of resilience of flood-prone communities in Nigeria. Therefore, this study aims to develop a fuzzy logic-based model for measuring the resilience of flood-prone communities towards achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 11 and 13. Design/methodology/approach This study describes the development of a fuzzy logic-based flood resilience measuring model, drawing on a synthesis of fuzzy logic literature and extant flood resilience. A generalisation of the flood system for a typical Nigerian community was made. It was followed by an identification and characterisation of the variables and parameters of the system based on SDGs 11 and 13. The generated data was transformed into a fuzzy inference system (FIS) using three input community flood resilience dimensions: natural, socio-technical and socio-economic factors (SEF). The model was then validated with primary data obtained from selected flood-prone communities in Ibadan, Southwest Nigeria. Expert opinions were used in rating the input dimensions for the selected communities. Findings In spite of various inputs from experts in the same study area (Apete, Ibadan, Nigeria), the resulting FIS generated consistent resilience indices for various natural, socio-technical and SEF. This approach can strengthen flood resilience measurement at the community level. Originality/value Although previous attempts have been made to measure flood resilience at the individual property level (Oladokun et al., 2017; Adebimpe et al., 2020), this research focuses on measuring flood resilience at the community level by adapting the fuzzy logic approach. The fuzzy logic-based model can be a tool for flood resilience measurement at the community level. It can also be developed further for regional and national level applications.
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CiteScore
3.40
自引率
6.20%
发文量
49
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