The impact of urban green spaces on the probability of urban crime in Indonesia

ABSTRACT Does the presence of green spaces in urban environments reduce the probability of crime? This paper applies the difference-in-differences approach to quantify the impact of urban green spaces on the probability of crime occurrence using data from the three largest metropolitan areas in Indonesia. Specifically, the study employs urban wards level data from the Village Potential Census (PODES) of 2014 and 2018 collected by Indonesia Statistics. Estimation results indicate a negative and significant impact of new urban green spaces on the probability of crime occurrence at the urban wards level. Results are reversed for those urban wards that lost green spaces, indicating an increase in the probability of crime when green spaces decrease. Results remain qualitatively unchanged with the inclusion of regional dummies and other control variables to control for regional differences, which indicates the robustness of our findings. By providing evidence that access to nature has a mitigating impact on crime in urban settings, city governments and communities are empowered to support these interventions.