Is reduced contact with the formal labor market over time associated with heightened recidivism risk?

Abstract This research addresses whether reductions in formal labor market contact over time lead to heightened recidivism risk among the formerly incarcerated. To address this question, this research draws on a sample of 2,050 Ohio ex-prisoners. First, using group-based trajectory modeling, subjects are categorized into four distinct categories of employment stability, reflecting longitudinal trajectories of formal labor market contact. Then, event-history analysis is used to empirically assess the implications of declining contact with the formal labor market on recidivism risk. Results demonstrate that (1) the recidivism risk of subjects with declining employment stability diverges substantially from the recidivism risk of subjects with high stability over time, (2) the recidivism risk of subjects with declining stability converges with the recidivism risk of subjects with low stability or no employment over time, and (3) heightened recidivism risk among subjects with declining stability occurs contemporaneously to reductions in formal labor market contact. Thus, this research provides novel evidence that dislocation from the formal labor market over time heightens recidivism risk among the formerly incarcerated and suggests that employment-based reentry programming may need to increasingly focus on helping the formerly maintain employment over longer periods of time.