De Facto and De Jure in the Practice of Induction

ABSTRACT ‘Simplicity’ comes up in different senses in scientific methodology. The simplicity criterion at issue here is relied on in all inductive inference, it’s argued. Therefore, it cannot be inductively learned—except by learners who already rely on it. The question whether one is warranted in relying on it is indeed in order, but we all are found on the affirmative side of the question in practice. On the one hand, there is arguably an epistemological lesson in this. On the other hand, there is the question what reality must be like objectively for reliance on simplicity to be so apt to pay off when it comes to forecasting the future.