新冠肺炎对巴基斯坦经济发展的影响:部门分析

M. Mazhar
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引用次数: 1

摘要

最近的新冠肺炎疫情严重阻碍了经济发展。持续的疫情给经济带来了挑战,并改变了全球生活方式,人们大多待在家里,如果可能的话,在家工作。因此,各经济部门的发展受到重大影响。本研究旨在审视新冠肺炎对巴基斯坦经济的影响,重点关注服务业、工业和农业等三个主要部门。各部门的国民生产总值(GNP)用于衡量经济发展,新冠肺炎通过冠状病毒病例总数和感染人数(活跃病例)来表示。该研究涵盖的数据范围从2020M2到2022M4。增广Dickey Fuller(ADF)和Phillips Perron(PP)单位根检验用于确保变量在水平上是稳定的。采用普通最小二乘法进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,新冠肺炎的两种指标对所有部门都有负面和重大影响,但规模因这些部门的性质而异。因此,对服务业和工业部门的影响大于对农业的影响。调查结果表明,在新冠肺炎之后,巴基斯坦各部委应合作调整发展政策,以改善部门发展,进而促进经济的整体发展。
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Impact of COVID-19 on Pakistan’s economic development: A sector-wise analysis
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has significantly hampered economic development. The ongoing pandemic has posed challenges to economies and altered global lifestyles, with people mostly staying at home and working from home if possible. As a result, the development of various sectors of the economy is impacted significantly. The present study aims to scrutinize the impact of COVID-19 on Pakistan’s economy focusing on the three main sectors such as services, industrial, and agriculture. The Gross National Product (GNP) of the respective sector is used to measure economic development, and COVID-19 is proxied through total coronavirus cases and the number of infected people (active cases). The data covered in the study range from 2020M2 to 2022M4. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests are used to ensure that the variables are stationary at the level. The empirical investigation is carried out by employing the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The findings reveal that both the proxies of COVID-19 have a negative and significant impact on all sectors, however, the size differs depending on the nature of these sectors. As such, the impact on the service and industrial sectors is larger than the impact on agriculture. The findings imply that Pakistani ministries should work cooperatively to align the development policies in the aftermath of COVID-19 to improve sectoral development and in turn the overall development of the economy.
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