Examination of the relationship between physician shortages and compensation rates in primary care versus other specialties

Background: It is projected that the United States will experience a shortage of 21,100 to 55,200 full-time equivalent primary care physicians by the year 2032. The shortage has been sparked by the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and has continued to grow due to the United States’ aging population, population health initiatives, and physician workload. While primary care physicians are responsible for more than half of all physician office visits in the United States, primary care physicians make up approximately 28% of the workforce. Recently, research has cited compensation as the primary reason for the shortage of primary care physicians. Primary care physicians have historically made less than physicians who specialize in other disciplines. Over the last 10 years, primary care physician compensation has increased. However, the shortage also continues to increase. The purpose of this research is to determine the relationship between primary care physician demand and compensation, and to compare that relationship with other specialties. Methods: Physician supply and demand data were collected utilizing the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) reports, The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand . Compensation data was collected utilizing Modern Healthcare’s Physician Compensation database. Results: When analyzing physician compensation with the employment cost index, primary care physician compensation was 1% higher than projected with inflation. Despite earning more than projected, it was determined that demand has little to no impact on primary care physician compensation. Conclusions: With more physicians moving towards employment with hospitals and hospital systems, there is an increased need for human resources initiatives. Hospital and hospital systems’ human resources departments should develop initiatives that increase pay for primary care physicians such as the standardization of compensation regardless of specialty within a healthcare organization.