{"title":"加密货币、nft和DeFis与最优组合投资策略之间的动态相互联系","authors":"Onur Polat","doi":"10.1108/cfri-03-2023-0061","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis study aims to scrutinize time-varying return and volatility interlinkages among major cryptocurrencies, NFT tokens and DeFi assets between 1 July 2018 and 19 February 2023 and determine optimal portfolio allocations and hedging effectiveness under different portfolio construction techniques.Design/methodology/approachThis work examines time-varying return and volatility interlinkages among major cryptocurrencies, NFT tokens, and DeFi assets between 1 July 2018 and 19 February 2023. To this end, the time-varying parameter-vector autoregression (TVP-VAR)-based connectedness methodology of Antonakakis et al. (2020) This approach is an extended version of the Diebold–Yilmaz (DY) method (Diebold and Yılmaz, 2014) and has advantages over the original DY. First, unlike the DY, it is free of the selection of a particular window size. Second, it has robustness for the outliers. Furthermore, following Broadstock et al. (2022), the author estimates time-varying optimal portfolio weights and hedging effectiveness under different portfolio construction scenarios.FindingsThis study's results indicate the following results: (1) The overall connectedness indices prominently capture well-known financial/geopolitical distress incidents; (2) the leading cryptocurrencies (ETH, BTC and BNB) are the largest transmitter of return shocks, while LINK and BTC are the largest transmitters/recipients of volatility shocks; (3) cryptocurrencies, NFTs and DeFi form distinct cluster groups in terms of return and volatility connectedness; (4) the connectedness networks estimated around the 2022 cryptocurrency crash and the FTX's filing for the bankruptcy are characterized by the strongest return and volatility interlinkages; (5) optimal portfolio strategies computed by different portfolio construction techniques display similar motifs and have sustained growth paths except for some short-lived drop backs.Research limitations/implicationsThis study's findings imply several policy suggestions for investors, stakeholders and policymakers. First, the study's time-based dynamic interlinkages can help market participants in their optimal portfolio decisions. In particular, the persistent net receiving roles of the DeFi assets and the NFTs throughout the episode, especially around the financial/geopolitical turmoil, underpin their safe haven potentials (Umar et al., 2022a, b). Finally, since the total connectedness indices (TCIs) are prone to significantly increase around financial/geopolitical burst times, these tools can be valuable for policy makers to monitor risk.Originality/valueThe contribution of knowledge is at least threefold. First, the author focuses on the dynamic time interlinkages among major cryptocurrencies, NFTs and DeFi assets in July 2018 and February 2023 considering the prominent recent financial/geopolitical incidents. Second, the author estimates network topologies of dynamic connectedness around financial/geopolitical bursts and compared them in terms of interlinkages. Finally, the author calculates the time-varying optimal portfolio allocations and hedging effectiveness under different portfolio construction techniques.","PeriodicalId":44440,"journal":{"name":"China Finance Review International","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Dynamic interlinkages between cryptocurrencies, NFTs, and DeFis and optimal portfolio investment strategies\",\"authors\":\"Onur Polat\",\"doi\":\"10.1108/cfri-03-2023-0061\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"PurposeThis study aims to scrutinize time-varying return and volatility interlinkages among major cryptocurrencies, NFT tokens and DeFi assets between 1 July 2018 and 19 February 2023 and determine optimal portfolio allocations and hedging effectiveness under different portfolio construction techniques.Design/methodology/approachThis work examines time-varying return and volatility interlinkages among major cryptocurrencies, NFT tokens, and DeFi assets between 1 July 2018 and 19 February 2023. To this end, the time-varying parameter-vector autoregression (TVP-VAR)-based connectedness methodology of Antonakakis et al. (2020) This approach is an extended version of the Diebold–Yilmaz (DY) method (Diebold and Yılmaz, 2014) and has advantages over the original DY. First, unlike the DY, it is free of the selection of a particular window size. Second, it has robustness for the outliers. Furthermore, following Broadstock et al. (2022), the author estimates time-varying optimal portfolio weights and hedging effectiveness under different portfolio construction scenarios.FindingsThis study's results indicate the following results: (1) The overall connectedness indices prominently capture well-known financial/geopolitical distress incidents; (2) the leading cryptocurrencies (ETH, BTC and BNB) are the largest transmitter of return shocks, while LINK and BTC are the largest transmitters/recipients of volatility shocks; (3) cryptocurrencies, NFTs and DeFi form distinct cluster groups in terms of return and volatility connectedness; (4) the connectedness networks estimated around the 2022 cryptocurrency crash and the FTX's filing for the bankruptcy are characterized by the strongest return and volatility interlinkages; (5) optimal portfolio strategies computed by different portfolio construction techniques display similar motifs and have sustained growth paths except for some short-lived drop backs.Research limitations/implicationsThis study's findings imply several policy suggestions for investors, stakeholders and policymakers. First, the study's time-based dynamic interlinkages can help market participants in their optimal portfolio decisions. In particular, the persistent net receiving roles of the DeFi assets and the NFTs throughout the episode, especially around the financial/geopolitical turmoil, underpin their safe haven potentials (Umar et al., 2022a, b). Finally, since the total connectedness indices (TCIs) are prone to significantly increase around financial/geopolitical burst times, these tools can be valuable for policy makers to monitor risk.Originality/valueThe contribution of knowledge is at least threefold. First, the author focuses on the dynamic time interlinkages among major cryptocurrencies, NFTs and DeFi assets in July 2018 and February 2023 considering the prominent recent financial/geopolitical incidents. Second, the author estimates network topologies of dynamic connectedness around financial/geopolitical bursts and compared them in terms of interlinkages. Finally, the author calculates the time-varying optimal portfolio allocations and hedging effectiveness under different portfolio construction techniques.\",\"PeriodicalId\":44440,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"China Finance Review International\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":9.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-08-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"China Finance Review International\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1108/cfri-03-2023-0061\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"China Finance Review International","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1108/cfri-03-2023-0061","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
本研究旨在研究2018年7月1日至2023年2月19日期间主要加密货币、NFT代币和DeFi资产之间的时变回报和波动性相互联系,并确定不同投资组合构建技术下的最佳投资组合配置和对冲有效性。这项工作研究了2018年7月1日至2023年2月19日期间主要加密货币、NFT代币和DeFi资产之间的时变回报和波动性相互联系。为此,Antonakakis等人(2020)的基于时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)的连通性方法。该方法是Diebold - yilmaz (DY)方法(Diebold and Yılmaz, 2014)的扩展版本,比原始DY具有优势。首先,与DY不同,它不需要选择特定的窗口大小。其次,它对异常值具有鲁棒性。此外,继Broadstock et al.(2022)之后,作者在不同的投资组合构建场景下估计了时变的最优投资组合权重和对冲有效性。研究结果表明:(1)整体连通性指数显著反映了众所周知的金融/地缘政治危机事件;(2)主要加密货币(ETH、BTC和BNB)是收益冲击的最大发送者,而LINK和BTC是波动冲击的最大发送者/接受者;(3)加密货币、nft和DeFi在收益和波动性连通性方面形成了不同的集群组;(4)在2022年加密货币崩溃和FTX申请破产前后估计的连通性网络具有最强的回报和波动性相互联系;(5)不同投资组合构建技术计算出的最优投资组合策略具有相似的基序,除个别短期回落外均具有持续的增长路径。研究的局限性/启示本研究的发现为投资者、利益相关者和决策者提供了一些政策建议。首先,该研究的基于时间的动态相互联系可以帮助市场参与者进行最优投资组合决策。特别是,在整个事件中,特别是在金融/地缘政治动荡期间,DeFi资产和nft的持续净接收作用支撑了它们的避险潜力(Umar等人,2022a, b)。最后,由于总连通性指数(tci)在金融/地缘政治爆发时期容易显著增加,这些工具对政策制定者监测风险很有价值。知识的贡献至少有三方面。首先,考虑到最近突出的金融/地缘政治事件,作者重点关注2018年7月和2023年2月主要加密货币、nft和DeFi资产之间的动态时间相互联系。其次,作者估计了围绕金融/地缘政治爆发的动态连通性的网络拓扑结构,并在相互联系方面对它们进行了比较。最后,计算了不同投资组合构建技术下的时变最优投资组合配置和套期保值效果。
Dynamic interlinkages between cryptocurrencies, NFTs, and DeFis and optimal portfolio investment strategies
PurposeThis study aims to scrutinize time-varying return and volatility interlinkages among major cryptocurrencies, NFT tokens and DeFi assets between 1 July 2018 and 19 February 2023 and determine optimal portfolio allocations and hedging effectiveness under different portfolio construction techniques.Design/methodology/approachThis work examines time-varying return and volatility interlinkages among major cryptocurrencies, NFT tokens, and DeFi assets between 1 July 2018 and 19 February 2023. To this end, the time-varying parameter-vector autoregression (TVP-VAR)-based connectedness methodology of Antonakakis et al. (2020) This approach is an extended version of the Diebold–Yilmaz (DY) method (Diebold and Yılmaz, 2014) and has advantages over the original DY. First, unlike the DY, it is free of the selection of a particular window size. Second, it has robustness for the outliers. Furthermore, following Broadstock et al. (2022), the author estimates time-varying optimal portfolio weights and hedging effectiveness under different portfolio construction scenarios.FindingsThis study's results indicate the following results: (1) The overall connectedness indices prominently capture well-known financial/geopolitical distress incidents; (2) the leading cryptocurrencies (ETH, BTC and BNB) are the largest transmitter of return shocks, while LINK and BTC are the largest transmitters/recipients of volatility shocks; (3) cryptocurrencies, NFTs and DeFi form distinct cluster groups in terms of return and volatility connectedness; (4) the connectedness networks estimated around the 2022 cryptocurrency crash and the FTX's filing for the bankruptcy are characterized by the strongest return and volatility interlinkages; (5) optimal portfolio strategies computed by different portfolio construction techniques display similar motifs and have sustained growth paths except for some short-lived drop backs.Research limitations/implicationsThis study's findings imply several policy suggestions for investors, stakeholders and policymakers. First, the study's time-based dynamic interlinkages can help market participants in their optimal portfolio decisions. In particular, the persistent net receiving roles of the DeFi assets and the NFTs throughout the episode, especially around the financial/geopolitical turmoil, underpin their safe haven potentials (Umar et al., 2022a, b). Finally, since the total connectedness indices (TCIs) are prone to significantly increase around financial/geopolitical burst times, these tools can be valuable for policy makers to monitor risk.Originality/valueThe contribution of knowledge is at least threefold. First, the author focuses on the dynamic time interlinkages among major cryptocurrencies, NFTs and DeFi assets in July 2018 and February 2023 considering the prominent recent financial/geopolitical incidents. Second, the author estimates network topologies of dynamic connectedness around financial/geopolitical bursts and compared them in terms of interlinkages. Finally, the author calculates the time-varying optimal portfolio allocations and hedging effectiveness under different portfolio construction techniques.
期刊介绍:
China Finance Review International publishes original and high-quality theoretical and empirical articles focusing on financial and economic issues arising from China's reform, opening-up, economic development, and system transformation. The journal serves as a platform for exchange between Chinese finance scholars and international financial economists, covering a wide range of topics including monetary policy, banking, international trade and finance, corporate finance, asset pricing, market microstructure, corporate governance, incentive studies, fiscal policy, public management, and state-owned enterprise reform.