Better prepared but less resilient: the paradoxical impact of frequent flood experience on adaptive behavior and resilience

Abstract. To better understand factors shaping adaptive behavior and resilience is crucial in designing policy strategies to prepare people for future flooding. The central question of our paper is how frequent flood experience (FFE) impacts adaptive behavior and self-reported resilience. The applied empirical methods are binary logistic and linear regression models using data from a panel dataset including 2462 residents (Germany, state of Saxony). Four main conclusions from the investigations can be drawn. First, more flood-experienced respondents are statistically significantly more likely to have taken precautionary measures in the past. Second, FFE has a statistically significant negative impact on self-reported resilience. Third, the impact of FFE on the capacity to recover and the capacity to resist is statistically significantly non-linear. Fourth, putting together these results reveals the paradox of more flood-experienced respondents being better prepared but feeling less resilient at the same time. It can be concluded that more research is needed to obtain deeper insights into the drivers behind self-reported resilience and that this study can be seen as a piece of the puzzle, taking frequent flood experience as the primary entry point.