1918年南非流感的相关因素和后果

IF 1.6 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-05-26 DOI:10.1111/SAJE.12285

Daniel de Kadt, J. Fourie, J. Greyling, Elie Murard, Johannes Norling

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引用次数: 2

摘要

我们研究了1918年流感或“西班牙流感”的人口和经济相关性，估计该流感导致南非6%的人口死亡。尽管这场疫情在南非史学界和其他背景下的社会科学家那里得到了一些关注，但人们对其对该国的长期影响知之甚少。我们汇集了一系列新来源的数据，包括人口和农业普查、家庭调查和选民名册，提供的分析表明，首先，预测南非各行政区流感死亡率的因素（有和没有），其次，表明流感的一些重要后果。我们的研究结果揭示了一个巨大但短暂的人口冲击，以及可检测的长期经济后果，尽管规模很小。©2021南非经济学会

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Correlates and Consequences of the 1918 Influenza in South Africa

We study the demographic and economic correlates of the 1918 influenza or “Spanish flu” that killed an estimated 6% of South Africa's population. While the pandemic has received some attention in South African historiography and from social scientists in other contexts, little is known about its long-term impact on the country. Bringing together data from a range of new sources, including population and agricultural censuses, household surveys, and the voters’ rolls, we provide analyses that show, first, the factors that (do and do not) predict flu mortality across South Africa's magisterial districts, and, second, suggest some important consequences of the flu. Our results reveal a large but short-lived demographic shock, and detectable, if small scale, long-term economic consequences. © 2021 Economic Society of South Africa

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来源期刊

SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The South African Journal of Economics (SAJE) has a long and distinguished history, ranking amongst the oldest generalist journals in economics. In terms of editorial focus, the journal remains a generalist journal covering all fields in economics, but with a particular focus on developmental and African contexts. Toward this end, the editorial policy of the SAJE emphasizes scholarly work on developing countries, with African and Southern African development challenges receiving particular attention. While the SAJE remains a generalist journal, it encourages empirical work on developing and African economies. Importantly the focus is on both theoretical developments and methodological innovations that reflect developing country and African contexts and the policy challenges they pose. The objective of the journal is to be the premier vehicle for the publication of the most innovative work on development country and particularly African economic problems. It aims to be the target journal of choice not only for scholars located in Southern Africa, but of any scholar interested in the analysis of development challenges and their African applications. Clear theoretical foundations to work published should be a hallmark of the journal, and innovation in both theory and empirics appropriate to developing country and the African contexts are encouraged. In terms of submissions, the journal invites submissions primarily of original research articles, as well as survey articles and book reviews relevant to its context. In the case of both survey articles and book reviews, authors should note that a key minimum requirement is a critical reflection on the broader context of the existing literature.