Shrinking Transnistria. Trends and Effects of Demographic Decline in a De Facto State

Abstract The paper examines the current demographic crisis of Transnistria, an internationally unrecognised state that separated from Moldova in 1990 followed by a short violent conflict in 1992. Much has been written about the conflict between Moldova and Transnistria. What these studies largely neglected to mention is that the region is experiencing a strong demographic decline for two reasons: sinking birth rates and high outmigration. This has consequences for economic development, education, healthcare, and the social infrastructure in both rural and urban areas. These trends are discussed against the background of the unique political situation of Transnistria and in light of similar demographic processes taking place in East Central and Southeastern Europe. The authors draw conclusions about the stability of the region and the relevance of the demographic situation for conflict transformation. The paper is based on studies conducted in Transnistria and fieldwork undertaken by the authors.