Modelling the historic and projected near-surface temperature trends across Canada

ABSTRACT This article explores the impact that Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1–2.6 and 5–8.5 will have on near-surface temperature across Canada. This is achieved through the use of model ensembles, made up of CMIP5 data, to establish both the historic record of near-surface temperature across Canada, as well as how this is predicted to change in the future given the two SSP emission scenarios. The conclusions drawn from this modelling and analysis is valuable in the context of sustainable development and climate mitigation and adaptation discussions. Specifically, an understanding of the spatial extent of warming trends across Canada will allow for a more specific and tailored approach to be taken towards adaptation and ensure appropriate measures are taken in good time.