白鼻综合征元群体模型的管理效果

IF 2.1 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Natural Resource Modeling Pub Date : 2021-04-06 DOI:10.1111/nrm.12304
Junyan Duan, Mykhaylo M. Malakhov, J. J. Pellett, I. Phadke, J. Barber, J. Blackwood
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引用次数: 2

摘要

真菌病原体Pseudogymnoascus destructans(Pd)会导致白鼻综合征(WNS),这是一种在冬眠期间影响北美蝙蝠种群的新疾病。Pd已经迅速蔓延到非洲大陆的大部分地区,导致大量蝙蝠死亡,并威胁到一些蝙蝠物种的灭绝。虽然之前的研究已经提出了治疗方法,但对集合种群动力学对这些干预措施的影响知之甚少。我们通过提出和分析一个两种群疾病模型,研究了蝙蝠在种群之间的运动如何影响五种WNS控制策略的成功。我们的研究结果表明,疫苗接种将受益于蝙蝠的更多传播,但针对真菌生长或疾病进展的治疗效果可能会降低。我们证实,成功的控制取决于蝙蝠对蝙蝠和环境对蝙蝠接触对Pd传播的相对贡献,此外还发现传播途径会影响种群间交换是增加还是降低控制效果。
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Management efficacy in a metapopulation model of white‐nose syndrome
The fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) causes white‐nose syndrome (WNS), an emerging disease that affects North American bat populations during hibernation. Pd has rapidly spread throughout much of the continent, leading to mass mortality and threatening extinction in several bat species. While previous studies have proposed treatment methods, little is known about the impact of metapopulation dynamics on these interventions. We investigate how the movement of bats between populations could affect the success of five WNS control strategies by posing and analyzing a two‐population disease model. Our results demonstrate that vaccination will benefit from greater bat dispersal, but the effectiveness of treatments targeting fungal growth or disease progression can be expected to diminish. We confirm that successful control depends on the relative contributions of bat‐to‐bat and environment‐to‐bat contact to Pd transmission, and additionally find that the route of transmission can influence whether interpopulation exchange increases or decreases control efficacy.
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来源期刊
Natural Resource Modeling
Natural Resource Modeling 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
6.20%
发文量
28
审稿时长
>36 weeks
期刊介绍: Natural Resource Modeling is an international journal devoted to mathematical modeling of natural resource systems. It reflects the conceptual and methodological core that is common to model building throughout disciplines including such fields as forestry, fisheries, economics and ecology. This core draws upon the analytical and methodological apparatus of mathematics, statistics, and scientific computing.
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