Kinneret流域气候与水平衡变化研究进展

M. Gophen
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引用次数: 8

摘要

最近在Kinneret湖(以色列)流域发现了1950-2019年期间为加强干旱而研究的区域气候变化。气候变化表现为:SPI负值(标准降水指数)的周期性频率较高,降水量和河流流量输入下降,其次是Kinneret湖WL和ET高程的下降。然而,干旱反而增强了ET能力的下降。地下水流表明产出增加。1940-1980年间气温的暂时下降可能是由于ALBEDO因子的变化,后来被扭曲为区域气温上升。在20世纪50年代,老胡拉湖和周围的湿地被排水,水覆盖表面被转化为植物覆盖,这增强了阳光能量的反射。随着最终的气候变化,管理立法减少了农业灌溉用水的分配。最近的一项公开争议表明,作为Kinneret湖WL下降的原因,存在矛盾的结论:1)约旦河上游流域农业用水量增加;2)气候变化干旱度增加。本文证实了第二个结论。
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Climate and Water Balance Changes in the Kinneret Watershed: A Review
Regional Climate Change studied during 1950-2019 aimed at enhancement of aridity was indicated recently in the Lake Kinneret (Israel) watershed. Climate change was indicated by: Higher periodical frequency of negative SPI Values (Standard Precipitation Index), decline of Precipitation regime and River flow inputs that was followed by decline of Lake Kinneret WL and Elevation of ET regime. Nevertheless aridity enhanced the opposite, decline of ET capacities. Underground flows indicated outputs enhancement. The temporal decline of air temperature during 1940-1980 probably due to the change of ALBEDO Factor was twisted later into regional temperature elevation. During the 1950s, old lake Hula and surrounding wetlands were drained and water cover surface was converted to plant cover, which enhanced sunlight energy reflection. Followed eventual climate change, management legislations were a reduction of water allocation for agricultural irrigation. A recent public dispute has indicated contradicted conclusions as causation for WL decline in Lake Kinneret: 1) Enhancement of Agricultural water consumption in the Upper Jordan Watershed and 2) Climate change-aridity enhancement. This paper confirms the second conclusion.
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