{"title":"具有可选稳定状态的随机生态系统的风格化模型","authors":"M. Stecher, Stefan Baumgärtner","doi":"10.1111/nrm.12345","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We construct a generic ecosystem model that features the basic mechanisms of alternative stable states as well as two different stochastic influences. In particular, we use a mean‐reverting jump‐diffusion process to model the evolution of the ecosystem state over time. We review key concepts of multistability theory and the simple heuristics commonly employed to illustrate them. We then provide mathematical definitions for these concepts in the model context. Our contribution to the literature is twofold: we improve the representation of stochasticity in, and clarify key concepts of, multistability theory. The simplicity of the model enables a number of applications, such as finding economically optimal management strategies, identifying criteria for sustainable ecosystem management in a stochastic viability framework, deriving the probability of a regime shift, or empirically identifying the factors which have caused a specific regime shift.","PeriodicalId":49778,"journal":{"name":"Natural Resource Modeling","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2022-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A stylized model of stochastic ecosystems with alternative stable states\",\"authors\":\"M. Stecher, Stefan Baumgärtner\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/nrm.12345\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We construct a generic ecosystem model that features the basic mechanisms of alternative stable states as well as two different stochastic influences. In particular, we use a mean‐reverting jump‐diffusion process to model the evolution of the ecosystem state over time. We review key concepts of multistability theory and the simple heuristics commonly employed to illustrate them. We then provide mathematical definitions for these concepts in the model context. Our contribution to the literature is twofold: we improve the representation of stochasticity in, and clarify key concepts of, multistability theory. The simplicity of the model enables a number of applications, such as finding economically optimal management strategies, identifying criteria for sustainable ecosystem management in a stochastic viability framework, deriving the probability of a regime shift, or empirically identifying the factors which have caused a specific regime shift.\",\"PeriodicalId\":49778,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Natural Resource Modeling\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-05-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Natural Resource Modeling\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12345\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Natural Resource Modeling","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12345","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
A stylized model of stochastic ecosystems with alternative stable states
We construct a generic ecosystem model that features the basic mechanisms of alternative stable states as well as two different stochastic influences. In particular, we use a mean‐reverting jump‐diffusion process to model the evolution of the ecosystem state over time. We review key concepts of multistability theory and the simple heuristics commonly employed to illustrate them. We then provide mathematical definitions for these concepts in the model context. Our contribution to the literature is twofold: we improve the representation of stochasticity in, and clarify key concepts of, multistability theory. The simplicity of the model enables a number of applications, such as finding economically optimal management strategies, identifying criteria for sustainable ecosystem management in a stochastic viability framework, deriving the probability of a regime shift, or empirically identifying the factors which have caused a specific regime shift.
期刊介绍:
Natural Resource Modeling is an international journal devoted to mathematical modeling of natural resource systems. It reflects the conceptual and methodological core that is common to model building throughout disciplines including such fields as forestry, fisheries, economics and ecology. This core draws upon the analytical and methodological apparatus of mathematics, statistics, and scientific computing.