具有可选稳定状态的随机生态系统的风格化模型

IF 1.8 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Natural Resource Modeling Pub Date : 2022-05-24 DOI:10.1111/nrm.12345
M. Stecher, Stefan Baumgärtner
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引用次数: 1

摘要

我们构建了一个通用的生态系统模型,该模型具有交替稳定状态的基本机制以及两种不同的随机影响。特别是,我们使用均值回归跳跃扩散过程来模拟生态系统状态随时间的演变。我们回顾了多稳定性理论的关键概念以及常用的简单启发式方法。然后,我们在模型上下文中为这些概念提供数学定义。我们对文献的贡献是双重的:我们改进了多稳定性理论中随机性的表示,并澄清了多稳定性的关键概念。该模型的简单性使许多应用成为可能,例如找到经济上最优的管理策略,在随机生存能力框架中确定可持续生态系统管理的标准,推导政权转移的概率,或根据经验确定导致特定政权转移的因素。
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A stylized model of stochastic ecosystems with alternative stable states
We construct a generic ecosystem model that features the basic mechanisms of alternative stable states as well as two different stochastic influences. In particular, we use a mean‐reverting jump‐diffusion process to model the evolution of the ecosystem state over time. We review key concepts of multistability theory and the simple heuristics commonly employed to illustrate them. We then provide mathematical definitions for these concepts in the model context. Our contribution to the literature is twofold: we improve the representation of stochasticity in, and clarify key concepts of, multistability theory. The simplicity of the model enables a number of applications, such as finding economically optimal management strategies, identifying criteria for sustainable ecosystem management in a stochastic viability framework, deriving the probability of a regime shift, or empirically identifying the factors which have caused a specific regime shift.
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来源期刊
Natural Resource Modeling
Natural Resource Modeling 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
6.20%
发文量
28
审稿时长
>36 weeks
期刊介绍: Natural Resource Modeling is an international journal devoted to mathematical modeling of natural resource systems. It reflects the conceptual and methodological core that is common to model building throughout disciplines including such fields as forestry, fisheries, economics and ecology. This core draws upon the analytical and methodological apparatus of mathematics, statistics, and scientific computing.
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