尽管面临挑战,美俄核军备控制仍有其好处

IF 1.9 4区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI:10.1080/00963402.2022.2132741
Shannon Bugos
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引用次数: 1

摘要

上一份限制美俄核武库的条约——《新削减战略武器条约》(New START)将在不到四年的时间内到期,这对于制定新的军备控制安排来说,时间并不长。随着双边关系紧张加剧,特别是考虑到俄罗斯入侵乌克兰,华盛顿和莫斯科必须尽早就新的《削减战略武器条约》后续安排举行正式谈判,以防止误判或升级,并确保世界上两个最大的核武器拥有国之间的战略稳定。谈判依赖于双方强烈的政治意愿,双方将各自提出不同的议程,要求对方做出一些让步。尽管会谈不可避免地会产生分歧,但美国和俄罗斯可以在一些关键问题上达成协议,比如俄罗斯在2018年和2019年公布的新型核武器运载系统。
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Despite challenges, US-Russian nuclear arms control has its benefits
ABSTRACT The last treaty limiting US and Russian nuclear arsenals, known as New START, expires in less than four years, which is not much time to put into place a replacement arms control arrangement. With bilateral tensions soaring, particularly given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Washington and Moscow must hold formal negotiations on a New START follow-on arrangement sooner rather than later, so as to prevent miscalculation or escalation – and ensure strategic stability between the world’s two largest owners of nuclear weapons. The negotiations rely on strong political will from both sides, who will each bring to the table a different agenda requiring some concessions from the other. Divisive though the talks will inevitably be, the United States and Russia can reach agreement on crucial issues of concern, such as Russia’s new nuclear weapon delivery systems unveiled in 2018 and 2019.
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54
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