用有限资源控制尼泊尔狂犬病疫情:最优控制理论方法

IF 0.4 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Mathematics in applied sciences and engineering Pub Date : 2020-12-10 DOI:10.5206/mase/10847
Buddhi Pantha, H. Joshi, N. Vaidya
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在包括尼泊尔在内的许多发展中国家,狂犬病流行病是一个严重的公共卫生问题,部分原因是用于适当实施控制措施的资源有限。在这项研究中,我们通过将各种控制纳入带有狗和豺矢量的传动动力学模型中,开发了一个扩展模型。我们将最优控制理论应用于所开发的模型系统,以确定在资源有限的尼泊尔减轻狂犬病负担的最优控制策略。在本研究中考虑的潜在控制策略中,人类疫苗接种、狗疫苗接种、扑杀狗、绝育狗和豺狼疫苗接种,我们的结果表明,狗疫苗接种和扑杀狗相结合是控制尼泊尔狂犬病最有效的策略。我们的最佳控制解决方案提供了最佳实施这些控制的策略,以使用与控制相关的最低成本来抑制尼泊尔狗和豺的狂犬病流行。我们发现,在资源有限的情况下,在疫情暴发之初以时间依赖的方式实施更高水平的控制,并在疫情后期减少控制,可以带来最大的好处。
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Controlling rabies epidemics in Nepal with limited resources: optimal control theory approach
In many developing countries, including Nepal, rabies epidemics constitute a serious public health concern, partly because of limited resources for proper implementation of control measures. In this study, we develop an extended model by incorporating various controls into the transmission dynamics model with both dog and jackal vectors. We apply the optimal control theory on the developed model system to identify optimal control strategy for mitigating rabies burden in Nepal with limited resources. Among the potential control strategies, human vaccination, dog vaccination, dog culling, dog sterilization, and jackal vaccination, considered in this study, our results show that a combination of dog vaccination and dog culling is the most effective strategy to control rabies in Nepal. Our optimal control solutions provide the strategy for optimal implementation of these controls to suppress rabies prevalence among dogs and jackals of Nepal using a minimum cost associated with controls. We found that given limited resources, implementing controls in a time-dependent manner with a higher level at the beginning of the outbreaks and reducing them during later part of the epidemics can provide maximum benefits.
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CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
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审稿时长
21 weeks
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