空间极值统计模型研究进展

IF 4.4 2区 数学 Q1 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Computational Statistics Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI:10.1002/wics.1537
Raphael Huser, J. Wadsworth
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引用次数: 64

摘要

空间极值的经典建模分别依赖于块最大值或高阈值峰值的渐近模型(即最大稳定或r - Pareto过程)。然而,在有限的水平上,经验证据往往表明,这种渐近模型过于严格地受到约束,并且它们不能充分捕捉到更严重的事件往往在空间上更局部的频繁情况。换句话说,这些渐近模型具有很强的尾部依赖性,这种依赖性在越来越高的水平上持续存在,而数据通常表明它应该减弱。经典空间极值模型的另一个众所周知的局限性是,它们要么在计算上难以适应高维,要么需要使用效率较低的技术进行拟合。在这篇综述文章中,我们描述了空间极值建模和推理的最新进展,重点是具有更灵活的尾部结构的新模型,可以桥接渐近依赖类,并且更容易适用于基于似然的大型数据集推理。特别地,我们讨论了各种类型的随机尺度结构,以及最近在极端界统计中越来越受到关注的条件空间极端模型。我们在两种不同的环境应用中说明了这些新的空间模型。
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Advances in statistical modeling of spatial extremes
The classical modeling of spatial extremes relies on asymptotic models (i.e., max‐stable or r‐Pareto processes) for block maxima or peaks over high thresholds, respectively. However, at finite levels, empirical evidence often suggests that such asymptotic models are too rigidly constrained, and that they do not adequately capture the frequent situation where more severe events tend to be spatially more localized. In other words, these asymptotic models have a strong tail dependence that persists at increasingly high levels, while data usually suggest that it should weaken instead. Another well‐known limitation of classical spatial extremes models is that they are either computationally prohibitive to fit in high dimensions, or they need to be fitted using less efficient techniques. In this review paper, we describe recent progress in the modeling and inference for spatial extremes, focusing on new models that have more flexible tail structures that can bridge asymptotic dependence classes, and that are more easily amenable to likelihood‐based inference for large datasets. In particular, we discuss various types of random scale constructions, as well as the conditional spatial extremes model, which have recently been getting increasing attention within the statistics of extremes community. We illustrate some of these new spatial models on two different environmental applications.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
31
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