国家脆弱性分析与评价

Zirui Su, Yuting Nie, Fei Xie
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摘要

几十年来,气候变化一直是全球关注的焦点。它经常引发许多环境问题,甚至严重的自然灾害。气候变化的潜在影响比气候变化本身更严重。其中许多影响将逐渐削弱社会和政府的结构。因此,破碎的政府将变成脆弱的国家,这是指那些不能或选择不向其人民提供基本必需品的国家。建立了模糊数学评价模型,对问题进行分析,对一国的脆弱性程度进行评价,并通过模型结果确定脆弱性评价等级。此外,我们还将我们的模型应用于也门,并比较了在考虑气候变化和不考虑气候变化的情况下的不同情况。然后我们把目光投向南非,一个越来越温暖的非洲国家。构建第二模型-时间序列预测模型,掌握南非脆弱性变化趋势,预测脆弱性程度变化的时间和方式。此外,我们修改了预测模型,并使用了一个全新的第三个模型,即灰色模型,通过预测索马里政府的积极反应将减缓干旱的到来,来计算索马里政府援助和干预的重要性。
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Analysis and Evaluation to a State’s Fragility
Climate change is a global focus over the decades. It triggers many environment issues frequently, even serious natural disasters. The potential effects of the climate change are worse than itself. Many of these effects will gradually weaken the structure of society and government. As a result, the broken governments will turn into fragile states which refer to those states that are not able or choose not to provide the basic essentials to its people. We develop the fuzzy mathematics evaluation model to analyze the problem and evaluate the degree of a country’s fragility, and we definite the fragility evaluation levels through the results in the model. In addition, we also apply our model to Yemen and compare the different situations whether considering climate change or not. Then we put our eyes on South Africa, a getting-warmer country in Africa. We construct the second model—Time series forecasting model, to grasp the changing fragility trend in South Africa and make prediction to see time and ways the fragility degree will change. Furthermore, we modify the forecasting model and use a brand new third model which is called grey model, to figure out the importance of Somalia governmental aid along with intervention by predicting that the arrival of drought in Somalia will be slowed down through positive response from the government.
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