衣索匹亚提格雷市Mekelle市发生车祸的决定因素:有序逻辑回归模型方法。

IF 0.3 Q4 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Momona Ethiopian Journal of Science Pub Date : 2019-12-18 DOI:10.21203/rs.2.19228/v1
H. Meles, Desta B. Gebrehiwot, Fireweini Gebrearegay Tela, Gebretsadik Gebru Wubet, Teodros Gebregergis
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引用次数: 1

摘要

背景:众所周知,车祸伤害程度是驾驶员行为、车辆特性和环境条件等因素复杂相互作用的结果。因此,很明显,识别这些因素对事故伤害的贡献是非常关键的。本研究的目的是进行描述性分析,以了解车祸的特征,评估埃塞俄比亚提格雷Mekelle市道路安全实践的普遍性和决定因素。方法:从2014年9月至2017年7月的交警办公室随机抽取数据。使用有序逻辑回归模型来检验使车祸水平恶化的因素。结果:本研究共调查385起车祸,其中死亡56.7%,重伤28.6%,轻伤14.7%。模型估计结果表明,经验丰富的驾驶员(Coef=0.686;p值<=0.050)会增加受伤程度。另一方面,私家车(系数=-1.160;p值<=0.010),车辆与行人的事故类型(系数=-2.852;p值<0.010),重型卡车(系数=-0.656;p值本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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Identification of Determinant Factors for Car Accident Levels Occurred in Mekelle City, Tigray, Ethiopia: Ordered Logistic Regression Model Approach.
Background : The car accident injury level is known to be a result of a complex interaction of factors to drivers’ behavior, vehicle characteristics and environmental condition. Therefore it is obvious that identifying the contribution of the factors to the accident injury is very critical. The objective of study was to perform descriptive analysis to see the characteristics of car accident, to assess the prevalence and determinants of road safety practices in Mekelle City, Tigray, Ethiopia. Methods : A random sample of data was extracted from traffic police office from September 2014- July 2017. An ordered logistic regression model was used to examine factors that worsen the car accident level. Result : A total sample of 385 car accidents were considered in the study of which 56.7% were fatal, 28.6% serious and 14.7% slight injury. The model estimation result showed that, being experienced drivers (Coef. = 0.686; p-value< = 0.050) were found to increase the level of injury. On the other hand, being private vehicle (Coef. = -1.160; p-value <= 0.010), the type of accident of vehicle with pedestrian (Coef. = -2.852; p-value <= 0.010), being heavy truck (Coef. = -0.656; p-value <= 0.050), being a cross country buss (Coef. = -0.889; p-value <= 0.050) and being owner of vehicle is the driver himself (Coef. = -.690, p-value <= 0.050) were found to decrease the level of car accident injury severity. Therefore, it is better to create continued awareness to those who are experienced drivers, who carelessly follow the traffic rules. Special attention is required to government owned vehicle drivers, as they were found to increase the level of car accident injury through different short term trainings.
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来源期刊
Momona Ethiopian Journal of Science
Momona Ethiopian Journal of Science MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES-
自引率
0.00%
发文量
13
审稿时长
12 weeks
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