具有周期性平稳长记忆多季节增量序列的极小鲁棒预测

M. Luz, M. Moklyachuk
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引用次数: 5

摘要

我们引入了具有周期平稳的分数阶广义多增量的随机序列$\zeta(k)$,它结合了循环平稳、多季节、积分和分数积分模式。我们基于随机序列$\zeta(k)$在点$k<0$处的观测,解决了由其未观测值构造的线性泛函的最优估计问题。对于具有已知谱密度的序列,我们得到了泛函最优估计的均方误差值和谱特性的计算公式。在序列谱密度不完全已知的情况下,给出了一些可容许谱密度集,提出了确定泛函最优线性估计的最不利谱密度和最小最大(鲁棒)谱特性的公式。
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Minimax-robust forecasting of sequences with periodically stationary long memory multiple seasonal increments
We introduce stochastic sequences $\zeta(k)$ with periodically stationary generalized multiple increments of fractional order which combines cyclostationary, multi-seasonal, integrated and fractionally integrated patterns. We solve the problem of optimal estimation of linear functionals constructed from unobserved values of stochastic sequences $\zeta(k)$ based on their observations at points $ k<0$. For sequences with known spectral densities, we obtain formulas for calculating values of the mean square errors and the spectral characteristics of the optimal estimates of functionals. Formulas that determine the least favorable spectral densities and minimax (robust) spectral characteristics of the optimal linear estimates of functionals are proposed in the case where spectral densities of sequences are not exactly known while some sets of admissible spectral densities are given.
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