紧急状态期间联邦系统的政策扩散:新冠肺炎全州封锁政策在美国的扩散

Sharon Elhadad, Udi Sommer
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文开发了一个统一的政策扩散模型,以分析新冠肺炎大流行期间联邦系统内采取全州封锁政策的速度。建立修改后的统一模型是为了提高我们对现有模型不足的情况下政策扩散的理解。作者强调了三个主要的政策传播渠道:区域、垂直和内部。该论文展示了该模型在美国各州的实证检验,发现纵向效应,如唐纳德·特朗普总统的支持率更高,以及新冠肺炎联邦资金支持的比例相对较高,与全州采取封锁政策的速度有很强的正相关。此外,某些内部影响也很重要——更高的州长支持率与全州封锁政策的实施速度呈正相关,州和地方支出、民主州政府以及民众对病毒的认识也是如此。然而,其他内部因素,如全州封锁政策的严格程度和一个州新冠肺炎死亡人数的相对比例,与封锁政策的实施速度的关联最小。令人惊讶的是,与过去的研究不同,横向区域效应在所提出的分析中没有发挥重要作用——邻国采取封锁政策的速度与全州封锁政策的采取速度无关。总体而言,研究结果表明,政治因素对美国全州采取封锁政策的速度有很大影响。
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Policy diffusion in federal systems during a state of emergency: diffusion of COVID-19 statewide lockdown policies across the United States
This paper develops a unified model of policy diffusion to analyze the speed of adoption of statewide lockdown policies within a federal system during the COVID-19 pandemic. The modified unified model was built to improve our understanding of policy diffusion in contexts where existing models fall short. The authors highlight three main policy diffusion channels: regional, vertical, and internal. The paper shows the empirical test of the model across US states and finds that vertical effects, such as higher approval ratings for President Donald Trump, as well as a comparatively high proportion of COVID-19 federal funding support, bear a strong positive association with the speed of statewide lockdown adoption policies. In addition, certain internal effects are also important - higher governor approval ratings are positively associated with the speed of statewide lockdown adoption policies, as are state and local spending, democratic state governments, and population awareness of the virus. However, other internal factors, such as the stringency of statewide lockdown policies and the relative proportion of COVID-19 deaths in a state, were minimally associated with the speed of lockdown policy adoption. Surprisingly, unlike past studies, horizontal regional effects did not play a significant role in the presented analysis - the speed of adoption of lockdown policies by neighboring states bears no association with the speed of policy adoption of statewide lockdowns. Overall, the results suggest a strong influence of political factors on the speed of statewide lockdown adoption policies in the US.
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来源期刊
Studia Z Polityki Publicznej - the Journal of Public Policy Studies
Studia Z Polityki Publicznej - the Journal of Public Policy Studies policy studies, public policy, sociology, public administration, public health -
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发文量
15
审稿时长
60 days
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