自动化和失业:巴西的例子

Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Nova Economia Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI:10.1590/0103-6351/6367

B. Ottoni, Paulo Rocha e Oliveira, Lucas Estrela, Ana Tereza Santos, Tiago Barreira

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要技术创新使机器能够进一步取代人类劳动。在这种情况下，我们根据Frey和Osborne（2017）的研究，该研究使用了美利坚合众国的数据，估计在一到二十年内，有多少巴西工作岗位可能会因现有技术而被淘汰。我们补充了包括巴西案例在内的早期研究，因为我们考虑了整个就业结构——包括正规和非正规部门——以估计该国可能被机器取代的就业比例。我们的研究结果表明，由于自动化，58.1%的巴西工作岗位可能在未来10至20年内消失。此外，我们观察到，与正规部门相比，非正规部门的工作岗位面临更高的自动化淘汰概率。

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Automation and job loss: the Brazilian case

Abstract Technological innovations are enabling machines to further replace human labor. In this context, we estimate - based on the Frey and Osborne (2017) study, which uses data from the United States of America (USA) - how many Brazilian jobs may be eliminated in one or two decades due to currently existing technologies. We add to earlier research, that included the Brazilian case, as we consider the entire employment structure - including both formal and informal sectors - in order to estimate the proportion of jobs in the country that may be substituted by machines. Our results indicate that 58.1% of Brazilian jobs may disappear over the next 10 to 20 years due to automation. Moreover, we observe that jobs in the informal sector face higher probabilities of elimination by automation when compared to the formal sector.

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来源期刊

Nova Economia Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

0.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

53 weeks

期刊介绍： Nova Economia is the journal of the Economics Department at Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil). It publishes articles and book reviews in all areas of economics and related disciplines. Nova Economia adopts a pluralistic orientation and welcomes papers in all research traditions and theoretical schools. Submisssions are peer-reviewed and scholarly standards are the sole criteria for editorial decisions. Nova Economia is published three times a year and offers free on-line access to the full articles published from 2000 on.