On the multi-annual potential predictability of the Arctic Ocean climate state in the INM RAS climate model

Abstract Idealized numerical experiments with the INM RAS climate model are used to study the potential predictability of the temperature in the upper 300-meter layer of the Arctic Ocean. It is shown that the heat content can be predictable for up to 4–6 years. Positive anomalies of the temperature and salinity are preceded for several years by a state in which the influx of Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean exceeds the average value. Surface fields, including temperature, salinity, concentration and mass of ice, are less predictable than the heat content in the layer of 0–300 meters.