新冠肺炎防控效果的定量评价

Q4 Engineering 电子科技大学学报 Pub Date : 2020-05-30 DOI:10.12178/1001-0548.4_2020144

Duanbing Chen, Wei Bai, Yan Wang, Min Wang, Wujuan Yu, Tao Zhou

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引用次数: 1

摘要

制定有效措施遏制新冠肺炎等严重传染病的传播，特别是在传播初期，具有重要意义。有效繁殖数是评价有效性的关键参数之一。由于症状发作不完全，很难估计有效繁殖数量。提出了一种基于蒙特卡罗方法的模型，利用少量症状发作来估计有效繁殖数。通过对有效繁殖数量的估计，对中国大陆和一些国际国家的控制效果进行了评价。在2020年1月20日引入A级控制措施后，新冠肺炎在两周内得到有效抑制。大韩民国对新冠肺炎的控制也取得了一些进展。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Quantitative Evaluation on the Prevention and Control Efficacy of COVID-19

It is significant to formulate effective measures to contain the spread of serious infectious diseases such as COVID-19, especially in the early stage of spread. Effective reproduction number is one of the key parameters to evaluate the effectiveness. It is difficult to estimate the effective reproduction number due to the incomplete symptom onsets. A model based on Monte Carlo method is proposed to estimate the effective reproduction number by using small number of symptom onsets. The control efficacy of Chinese mainland and some international countries is evaluated by the estimation of effective reproduction number. COVID-19 was effectively suppressed in two weeks after introducing A-level control measure at January 20, 2020. The containment of COVID-19 in Republic of Korea has also achieved some progresses.

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