Assessing current and future soil erosion under changing land use based on InVEST and FLUS models in the Yihe River Basin, North China

The Yihe River Basin is a key area for water conservation and soil erosion control in northern China. The excessive development of land resources is a major factor causing soil erosion and ecological degradation. However, the impacts of land use change on soil erosion in the basin are not yet clearly. Understanding the complex relationship between land use and soil erosion is an important way to promote the development of land resources utilization and ecological construction from cognition to decision-making. This study simulated the temporal-spatial changes of soil erosion in the basin from 1956 to 2020 using Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, and evaluated the changes of soil erosion under different land use scenarios from 2020 to 2050 using Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model. From 1956 to 2020, the overall soil erosion intensity showed a slight decreasing trend, and the average annual soil erosion modulus was 38.21 t/ha/year. Soil erosion intensity was higher in the central and northern mountainous areas, while it was lower in the flat alluvial plains in the south. Arable land (4.07 t/ha/year) was the largest contributor to the amount of soil erosion, and land use changes caused the soil erosion intensity to fluctuate and decrease after 1995. From 2020 to 2050, soil erosion varied widely under different land use scenarios, and the land use pattern targeting ecological priority development would effectively mitigate soil erosion. Therefore, optimizing land use patterns and structures are critical initiatives to prevent soil erosion.