Introduction: Security in Northern Europe

A state’s prioritisation of defence waxes and wanes according to threat assessments. Currently, defence issues have regained an urgency that Europe has not witnessed for at least three decades. Russia’s aggressive rhetoric and behaviour, significant numbers of forces on high readiness, revitalisation of sea control and sea denial in its northern bastion, reinvestment in forces and dual-use infrastructure along its Arctic coast, and ambitious military modernisation programme with emphasis on long-range precision weapons present a major concern for all of Europe, and for the eastern and northern countries in particular. Heightened submarine activity in the North Atlantic challenges open sea lines of communication between North America and Europe and the ability to provide transatlantic reinforcement in a potential conflict. Russia’s offensive and at times aggressive manoeuvre exercises that include simulated attacks in the Nordic-Baltic countries increase tension still further. Moscow has also engaged in active cyber attacks and has demonstrated innovative hybrid strategies. A recent US study identifies four capability areas of major concern: long-range precision strike; integrated air and missile defence; cyber and electronic warfare; and, not least, nuclear forces. FOCUS 2018 – the Norwegian Intelligence Service’s annual assessment of the current security challenge – concludes that Russia has ‘modernised and trained its armed forces to a standard that expands the Kremlin’s scope for action, including in the High North and